Asia Economics Update Indonesia: Jokowi will struggle to revive economy The two key economic challenges facing President Joko Widodo in his second term are boosting GDP growth and reducing Indonesia’s external vulnerabilities. We don’t think he will succeed in either. 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Mar.) Inflation in South Africa picked up to 4.5% y/y in March due to petrol prices, but we think that it will soon ease. We’re sticking to our non-consensus view that policymakers will cut late this year. 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Emefiele’s legacy As CBN Governor Godwin Emefiele’s term draws to a close, we’ve taken a look at how his controversial decisions worsened Nigeria’s recent economic crisis. Given President Muhammadu Buhari’s views on... 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Inventories to weigh on GDP growth later this year A surge in business inventories appears to have boosted first-quarter GDP, but the now elevated inventory-to-sales ratio suggests that inventories will be a drag over the remainder of this year, which... 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Mar.) The 0.1% m/m decline in industrial production in March completed a weak first quarter in which industrial production contracted by 0.3% annualised, as the US factory sector succumbed to the global... 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Fall in mortgage rates fails to boost buying sentiment Even as mortgage interest rates have fallen to 15-month lows, the share of Americans saying now is a good time to buy a home has stayed close to 10-year lows. While some rise in buying sentiment over... 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Feb.) February’s drop in manufacturing sales volumes adds to the signs that the economy had a poor month. While part of the weakness may reflect temporary factors, such as unseasonably severe winter weather... 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Commercial property investment (Mar.) The improvement in investment activity in March was mostly driven by a one-off deal and with economic and political uncertainty to continue for longer, we do not expect to see a sustained pick up in... 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus What would convince the Fed to cut rates? The economy is still in stronger shape than it usually was when the Fed started cutting interest rates in the past. Based on the Fed’s previous behaviour, however, the economic slowdown that we expect... 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Feb.) The labour market posted another decent month in February. However, we suspect that February could mark the peak for employment growth as the survey evidence turned down sharply in recent months. 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (Mar.) Inflation in Nigeria remained strong in March, and will probably stay above target over the coming months. Even so, we expect that will probably continue their controversial loosening cycle. 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Feb.) The better-than-expected 1.3% m/m rise in Turkish industrial production in February provides further evidence that the economy pulled out of recession in Q1. But the recovery is likely to be slow. 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What do the ONS “Faster Indicators” tell us? The widespread use of digital technology should eventually make it possible to read how the economy is faring earlier and more accurately. The “Faster Indicators” released for the first time by the... 15th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business Outlook Survey (Q1) The latest Business Outlook Survey suggests that GDP growth will remain weak while core inflation could fall sharply. This supports our view that the Bank of Canada’s next move will be to cut interest... 15th April 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Copper rally: too far, too soon Copper prices have approached 10-month highs recently on supply woes and optimism that growth in China will rebound, but we think that this rally will reverse as China’s recovery falls short of... 15th April 2019 · 1 min read
