Commodities Update China’s commodity exports boom in March China’s commodity imports were generally weak in the first quarter of 2019, mirroring the slowdown in the wider economy. In contrast, commodity exports surged. We suspect that imports will remain... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Stagnation in Sweden, Norges Bank hawkish Private sector production data for February, released this week, added to the evidence from other indicators that Swedish economic growth slowed sharply at the start of 2019. We think that the Rikbank... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s reform plans, Central European inflation The Turkish finance minister’s economic reform plan unveiled this week was light on details and provided worrying signs that the government may lean on state banks to drive an economic recovery... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly A look ahead to Indonesia’s election With Joko Widodo around 20%-points ahead of Prabowo Subianto in the latest opinion polls, the result of Wednesday’s presidential election in Indonesia looks like a foregone conclusion. Mainly because... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Mar.) Broad credit growth rose in March, but is still consistent with further economic weakness in the near term. We think that the People’s Bank will loosen policy further over coming months. 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Feb.) February’s industrial production data suggest that output in the sector performed a little better in Q1 than at the end of last year, but the sector is still struggling. And with global economic... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Weak South Africa weighs on regional outlook Activity data out this week added to the evidence that South Africa’s economy faltered in Q1. As we argue in our latest Outlook, problems in South Africa are a key reason why we think that regional... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Lower rates won’t prevent economic slowdown The sustained drop in Treasury yields since early November is one reason why we have upgraded our economic forecasts for 2020, but we do not think that will be enough to prevent economic growth... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Italian & German equities likely to lag rest of the E-Z We think that euro-zone stock markets will generally fall in the rest of 2019 as global growth remains weak and appetite for risk wanes. Equities in Germany and Italy will fare particularly poorly, in... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Full effects of housing downturn yet to be felt The continued weakness of home sales suggests that March’s rebound in housing starts is unlikely to be sustained, while the subdued pace of house price inflation points to spending growth remaining... 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Weak sentiment weighing on the leisure sector Weak sentiment and higher vacancy rates point to a softening in leisure rental value growth and higher leisure yields in coming months. In turn, we think that capital values for leisure property could... 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Africa: Recovery will stall in 2019, pick up next year Economic growth across Africa as a whole will remain weak in 2019 due to very poor performances from Nigeria and South Africa. Conditions will probably improve next year, but regional growth will be... 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Feb.) The decent 0.3% m/m rise in Mexican industrial production in February suggests that the sector made a small positive contribution to growth in Q1, having exerted a drag of about 0.3%-pts in Q4. This... 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Households vulnerable despite robust labour market Despite the strength of the labour market, the precarious condition of households’ finances suggests that consumer spending growth will continue to disappoint. 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update New Brexit deadline, new forecasts The second delay to Brexit, to 31st October 2019, and developments overseas have altered the assumptions that underpin our UK economic forecasts. As such, we have tweaked those forecasts. The main... 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
