Commodities Update A higher oil price forecast, but big picture unchanged We retain our long-held view that the price of oil will fall this year owing to weak global growth, further gains in US oil output and a rise in investor risk aversion. However, the scale of recent... 23rd April 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response FHFA House Prices / New Home Sales (Feb./Mar.) New home sales continued their strong start to the year in March, with an increase in the number of cheaper homes sold helping lift them to a 17-month high. But with the economy slowing, that rate of... 23rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Poland: Rising inflation won’t prompt interest rate hikes Polish inflation is likely to rise over the coming quarters, but we don’t think that will prompt a policy response. With growth set to slow next year and the ECB likely to relaunch QE, we expect that... 23rd April 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Democratic primary hints at break from past policies It is still too early to tell who will end up securing the Democratic nomination for the presidential election in 2020, but there is a good chance that the successful candidate will come from the... 23rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports past the worst, but will remain weak Having stagnated in February, there are tentative signs in the March data that the worst has passed for EM exports. But weakness in the global technology sector, lower commodity prices and soft global... 23rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (Mar.) Inflation in Saudi Arabia remained in negative territory last month and, barring a fresh round of administered price hikes, we expect this to remain the case for much of this year. 23rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: the economic impact of the attacks The deadly terrorist attacks that took place across Sri Lanka on Easter Sunday are first and foremost a human tragedy, but are also likely to have severe economic consequences. A big drop in tourist... 23rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Mar.) Power problems and weak prices have held back aluminium output so far this year. But we think that rising capacity and lower raw material costs will cause production to rise in the coming months. 23rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Mar.) March’s stronger-than-expected activity data suggest that Poland’s economy has, so far at least, shrugged off weakness in Germany. We estimate that GDP growth came in at around 4.5% y/y in Q1 – only a... 23rd April 2019 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Property demand to remain subdued A further acceleration in home prices on the official survey of 70 cities has sparked hopes that China’s residential property market may be heating up after more than a year of nearly flat sales. But... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodities shrug off better news from China The stronger-than-expected economic activity data released this week by China failed to boost commodity markets. Part of the reason is probably that some of the good news had already been priced in... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Underperformance of German and Japanese equities may not last 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Soft PMIs dampen optimism about a global turnaround Hopes for an imminent revival of global growth were brought back down to earth by the latest batch of surveys. Falls in the US and euro-zone composite PMIs suggest that it’s too soon to call a global... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Bolsonaro’s unorthodoxy, Argentina’s inflation panic Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro this week has shown further signs that he is less committed to market orthodoxy than many had hoped. For now, it seems that parts of the administration are working... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Mixed signals for the Bank A slew of data releases this week presented mixed signals for the Bank of Canada ahead of next week’s policy meeting. Although core inflation has picked up and the economy probably performed a bit... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
