US Employment Report Preview Manufacturing slump weighing on payroll growth Our model suggests that non-farm payroll employment increased by a more modest 165,000 in April, with the survey-based hiring indicators and the recent contraction in temporary help employment both... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Rental growth to boost Barcelona logistics returns Limited availability and a small pipeline will support further logistics rental growth in Barcelona. As a result, total returns will outperform those of Madrid and be amongst the highest in the euro... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Monetary policy may not be the key driver of DM currencies 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Households happy to spend Some of the surge in retail sales in Q1, which has pushed the three-month-on-three-month growth rate back up to the pace seen before the EU referendum in 2016, might have been due to households... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC unlikely to see the Brexit delay as a reason to hike If the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) wanted to raise interest rates from 0.75%, the six-month Brexit delay provides it with a window to do so. More likely, though, is that the MPC remains in a state... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Mar.) The strong rise in underlying capital goods orders in March, together with stronger retail sales last month, suggests the economy is carrying a bit more momentum into the second quarter. But a drop... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update LME lead prices to fall, but still outperform The price of lead has been lower on the LME than on the Shanghai exchange for more than a year now and it has fallen this year while the prices of other metals, most notably its sister metal zinc... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Bund yields likely to fall further, but rebound next year We expect the yield of 10-year German government bonds to continue to drop this year, as investors factor in the prospect of even looser monetary policy in the euro-zone and demand for safe havens... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil output, Egypt’s constitutional referendum US President Trump’s decision not to extend waivers on Iran’s oil exports means that Saudi Arabia is likely to raise oil production over the coming months. While this poses an upside risk to our GDP... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Apr.) The further rise in Brazilian inflation, to 4.7% y/y in the first half of April, was driven almost entirely by stronger food and fuel inflation. There are signs in the breakdown that inflation has now... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Easing labour shortages will help cut building backlog The sharp fall in lumber prices over the past 10 months has failed to halt the rise in single-family homes which have been authorised, but not started. Labour shortages now appear to be the key... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC brings policy easing on to the agenda The Turkish central bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold at today’s meeting was widely expected, although changes to the accompanying statement suggest that the MPC is starting to consider... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: rates to be left unchanged this year Bank Indonesia (BI) left rates unchanged at 6.0% at its meeting today and there was little indication in the statement that it is likely to adjust monetary policy anytime soon. We expect rates to... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q1) The RICS survey showed no improvement in occupier demand conditions and investment enquires worsening, consistent with the property market slowing further. 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank still too optimistic about repo rate hikes The dovish shift in the Riksbank’s policy stance is a step in the right direction. But with economic growth and core inflation set to remain subdued over the coming years, we still think that... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM currency outlook poor regardless of oil prices Despite the 35% surge in oil prices this year, some of the EM currencies traditionally regarded as “petro-currencies” have hardly risen. That is not all that surprising – the influence of oil prices... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
