Some of the surge in retail sales in Q1, which has pushed the three-month-on-three-month growth rate back up to the pace seen before the EU referendum in 2016, might have been due to households bringing forward some purchases ahead of the original 29th March Brexit deadline. But most of it probably reflects the recent robust rises in employment and wages that have put more money in people’s pockets. So while retail sales growth may ease in Q2, we doubt it will slow dramatically. Households will probably remain happy to spend for a while yet.
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