Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Mar.) March’s rise in export volumes only partially reversed February’s slump, but exports probably rose again in April. After being a big drag on first-quarter GDP growth, which we estimate was only 1.0%... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Mar.) & Producer Prices (Apr.) With the rising possibility of a big escalation in the US-China trade dispute this week, March’s trade figures could represent the calm before the storm. The trade deficit widened trivially to $50.0bn... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Apr.) The rise in Mexican inflation last month, to 4.4% y/y, is likely to mark the peak and we expect the headline rate to decline over the next few months. This, combined with weak economic activity, will... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy ending Q1 on less gloomy note Activity figures for March were stronger than those for February, but it still looks almost certain that South Africa’s economy contracted in Q1. Conditions seem to have improved in April, and we... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s pension reform: entering choppy waters… Opposition to Brazil’s pension reform has, so far, been limited to fairly minor components of the bill. But it will face more substantial resistance in the coming months. Ultimately, our sense is that... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack April jump in inflation won’t last Euro-zone GDP growth was stronger than expected in Q1, at 0.4% q/q, but we suspect that it will slow again in the coming quarters. Activity was flattered by the comparison with a weak end to 2018 and... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rising services inflation to bolster case for rate hikes The sluggishness in CPI inflation can partly be explained by factors that will prove temporary. And with cost pressures building, there is scope for services inflation to push the CPI rate higher than... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Bahrain’s fiscal woes, Tadawul falls, PMIs positive Developments in Bahrain over the past week suggest that the government is backtracking on its commitment to fiscal austerity. We doubt that the other Gulf countries will withdraw their support but, if... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Oil supply fears fading fast The price of oil rose a little last month owing in part to supply concerns regarding the US decision to end sanction waivers on Iran’s oil exports. We now expect Iran’s output to fall further and have... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further rate cuts coming in the Philippines The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) cut interest rates by 25bp today, and further interest rate cuts seem only a matter of time. Given the subdued outlook for inflation and the dovish nature of... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What’s behind the strength of Hungarian inflation? The recent pick-up in Hungarian core inflation is partly a result of tax changes but also reflects rapid wage growth, and this is likely to cause underlying price pressures to continue to build. We... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Policy Rate Decision (May) Today’s decision by the Norges Bank to leave its policy rate on hold at 1.00% is just a brief pause in its tightening cycle, with another hike now almost certain in June. With core inflation set to... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian central bank looking through inflation rise Copom’s statement from last night’s meeting highlighted that policymakers are not troubled at all by the recent jump in inflation and, rightly in our view, see it as temporary. If anything, they are... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Apr.) Egyptian inflation dropped back in April but given that it remained above target, the chance of an interest rate cut at the MPC meeting in two weeks’ time is touch and go. For now, though, we still... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Apr.) Falling buyer enquiries and sales instructions point to further housing market weakness. And the rental market data also suggest that landlord instructions weakened. That supports our view that rental... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Apr.) Both official measures of inflation picked up last month but this was mostly due to supply-side factors and therefore shouldn’t be interpreted as clear evidence of stronger domestic demand. 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
