UK Housing Market Chart Pack Mortgage approvals drop to a 21-month low There was little, if any, positive news from the housing market this month. With confidence in the recovery on the wane, mortgage credit conditions tight and houses still overvalued, we find it hard... 3rd February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Emerging European office rental value growth prospects mixed Over the next few years, office markets in Warsaw, Moscow and Istanbul look set to continue outperforming other Emerging European capitals. Indeed, brighter GDP and employment growth prospects suggest... 3rd February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK CIPS Report on Services (Jan.) The bounce-back in the UK CIPS/Markit report on services in January confirms that the drop in activity in December was partly a temporary result of the snow. Nonetheless, the underlying trend still... 3rd February 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Is Saudi Arabia next? Events in Egypt are unfolding quickly and further political change looks inevitable. An orderly transition of power is still possible and would ensure that the current disruption to markets in the... 2nd February 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update How much should we fear a consumption tax hike? In a parliamentary debate today Prime Minister Kan hinted that the government does not intend to raise Japan’s consumption tax until after the next Lower House elections, which are not scheduled to... 2nd February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook A toxic mix for incomes Falling disposable incomes will soon bring the consumer recovery to an end. We still expect spending to start falling again in real terms. 2nd February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Ireland's bail-out under threat? Ireland’s next Government will push for better terms on its existing bail-out package, but it will enter discussions in a weak bargaining position. Even if it does gain major concessions there is a... 2nd February 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus House prices still have further to fall House prices have diverged from the levels that might be justified by income fundamentals in six periods over the last 35 years, but none of these episodes can be explained by the same set of factors... 2nd February 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Choppier waters ahead As growth slows out and fears about inflation fade, expectations of higher interest rates in the major developed economies should be scaled back significantly. In the second half of 2011 we expect US... 2nd February 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil: managing the risks of abundance The near-term outlook for Brazil remains extremely good, in part due to the strength of capital inflows and a boom in domestic lending. But we are becoming increasingly concerned that both factors... 2nd February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Jan) In January, the CIPS/Markit construction PMI rose back above the expansion/contraction mark of 50. Of course, after December’s snow, a rebound was perhaps always likely. While activity remains... 2nd February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is GDP higher than we think? A number of puzzles in the UK economy would be resolved if it turned out that GDP has been higher over the past couple of years than the official figures suggest. However, the evidence – while not... 2nd February 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Crisis in Egypt could keep food prices higher for longer Much of the coverage of the wider fall-out from the crisis in Egypt has focused on the potential impact on oil prices, but this threat to the global recovery is almost certainly exaggerated. Instead... 2nd February 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan.) Today's data releases illustrate the two-speed nature of this recovery, with the manufacturing sector leading the way and the construction sector lagging far behind. 1st February 2011 · 1 min read
