Europe Economics Weekly The Grand Bargain - bazooka or popgun? Peripheral euro-zone bond yields fell further last week in apparent anticipation of the so-called “Grand Bargain” of policy measures. But the markets’ optimism raises the danger that the package falls... 7th February 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank of Korea set to tighten again We expect Korea’s central bank to hike the base rate by 25bp for the second meeting in a row on Friday, which would take the policy rate to 3.0%. This is also the consensus view. Core inflation, which... 7th February 2011 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Investors reassess the outlook for rates Increased optimism about the economic outlook, buoyed by the announcement late last year of further policy stimulus, has helped the US equity market move a little higher since the beginning of 2011... 4th February 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jan.) Solid increases in employment over the last three months are consistent with the pick-up in economic growth in Q4. However, the unfavourable split between part-time and full-time workers added in... 4th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) The severe winter weather that occurred during the sample week appears to explain most of the weakness in January's non-farm payrolls, which increased by only 36,000, compared with a 121,000 gain the... 4th February 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Is Mexican manufacturing bucking the trend? The drop in Mexico’s IMEF Manufacturing Index last month stands in stark contrast to the recent strength of industrial surveys elsewhere in the world, notably the US. The good news is that the... 4th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Halifax House Prices (Jan.) The bounce in house prices in January is unlikely to signal the start of a rising trend. With the economic fundamentals of the housing market still very weak, the most likely scenario is for house... 4th February 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia makes the right move Bank Indonesia today hiked its reference rate by 25bp to 6.75%. This is what we expected would happen, but was a surprise to the consensus. More hikes are on the way, and soon. We continue to... 4th February 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response UAE HSBC/Markit PMI (Jan.) Today’s PMI data show the UAE’s non-oil private sector started the year on a positive note. The index rose from 53.0 in December last year to 54.2 in January this year. This puts the index at its... 4th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Snow effects aside, the recovery looks lacklustre The rebound in the CIPS/Markit surveys in January provides some reassurance that the 0.5% drop in GDP in the final quarter of last year was primarily due to the effects of the snow. However, as far as... 3rd February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech policymakers turn hawkish The hawkish comments that accompanied today’s decision to leave Czech interest rates unchanged have pushed the koruna above 24/euro for the first time since October 2008. But while the chances of an... 3rd February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB keeps its finger off the trigger The lack of a further step-up in the ECB’s anti-inflation rhetoric today supports our view that the Bank is unlikely to tighten policy in the near future. Nonetheless, its generally hawkish stance... 3rd February 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Focus House prices likely to fall for several years We doubt that the economic recovery is on the secure footing required for it to maintain its recent pace. We expect GDP growth of just 1.5% in both 2011 and 2012. But at least the UK has turned a... 3rd February 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Some Q&A on the fall-out from Egypt We have spent much of the last week fielding questions about the events in Egypt and their global implications. This note summarises our answers. Those wanting further detail and more regular coverage... 3rd February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Construction Survey (Q4 10) December’s snow may have distorted the data, but the latest RICS survey nevertheless showed that commercial property, driven by London’s office market, was the only sector to see a rise in... 3rd February 2011 · 1 min read
