US Economics Update Fed's survey shows big jump in demand for business loans The Fed's latest survey of Senior Loan Officers suggests that we could see a marked turnaround in business lending this year, which would presumably boost investment and possibly even employment too... 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Inflation concerns should fade in second half of 2011 Inflation is rapidly moving up the list of concerns for policymakers in Emerging Europe. It is now running above target in most of the region’s major economies, including Poland, Hungary, Romania and... 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand political risks should fall this year Monthly indicators for December released at the end of last week and today underline that Thailand’s economy is now regaining momentum. The main threat to the economic outlook is an increase in... 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates (Q4) The declining homeownership rate and the rising vacancy rate support our view that the combination of weak housing demand and high supply will continue to undermine house prices this year. Conversely... 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Nov.) November GDP data confirm the likely pick-up in fourth quarter economic growth to more than 2.0% from 1.3% in the third. While a stronger US economy will help Canadian industry in the near-term, we... 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Early signs of activity slowdown The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that activity slowed in the final weeks of 2010. This is further evidence that the economy is not overheating. 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How serious is the Egyptian crisis? Events in Egypt are unfolding quickly and further political change looks inevitable. An orderly transition of power is still possible and would ensure that the current disruption to markets in the... 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Frankfurt to lead Germany's office rental recovery The relative importance of the banking and financial services industries to the Frankfurt office market could mean that occupier demand will recover faster here than elsewhere in Germany. Meanwhile... 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (Dec.) The latest data from the Land Registry are further evidence of the anaemic state of the housing market. Rising unemployment and tight credit conditions are likely to mean that transaction levels... 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia steps up fight against inflation Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to raise bank reserve requirements is further evidence that inflation worries are starting to trump growth concerns. 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update The Philippines set for another strong year in 2011 Q4 GDP in the Philippines, published today, was up in q/q terms, after dropping in Q3. Household spending and private investment should be strong in coming quarters. An increase in the central bank... 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan's household spending still a weak spot Taiwan continued to outperform most expectations at the end of 2010 thanks to strong export growth. But the relative weakness of household spending means that the economy is likely to underperform if... 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan's central bank hopes for the best In a surprise decision over the weekend, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) left its policy rate unchanged at 14.0%. The SBP was unequivocal in its criticism of government policies but is prepared to... 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production (Dec.) and PMI (Jan.) The December production survey and the January manufacturing PMI confirm that the industrial sector at least began 2011 strongly. However, much of the new output is simply being added to inventories... 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank Indonesia likely to hike this week It is a close call but we still expect Indonesia’s central bank (BI) to finally lift its policy rate this week, by 25bp to 6.75%. The economic upswing should stay in good shape, while macro prudential... 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fiscal outlook continues to deteriorate The latest Federal budget projections from the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office underline the terrible state of the public finances. This year's deficit is now expected to reach $1,480bn, or 9... 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
