Asia Economics Update Australia's Reserve Bank still likely to hike by year-end The government in Australia will introduce a temporary levy on household incomes to help pay for the damage caused by recent floods. The floods disaster has not materially changed the economic outlook... 27th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Poor quality of new jobs is an additional concern Over the past year, payroll employment has increased by just 1.1 million, reversing only a small number of the 8.3 million jobs lost during the recession. What makes the labour market recovery even... 27th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Has the rebound in payrolls been even weaker? Our econometric model suggests that payroll employment increased by around 125,000 in January. That would be in line with the average gain in the previous three months and suggest that the recent... 27th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Dec.) December's durable goods figures are frankly very suspicious looking. According to the report, new orders for non-defence aircraft dropped from $5,019 million in November to an impossibly low $24... 27th January 2011 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB to maintain its hawkish stance At February’s press conference, President Trichet looks set to maintain a fairly hawkish tone, adding to fears that the ECB might raise interest rates later this year and possibly placing further... 27th January 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Downgrade not catastrophic but fiscal crisis looms S&P’s decision to downgrade Japan’s sovereign credit rating one notch (to AA-) today may not be a big deal in itself, but it supports our fears that 2011 will be the year when Japan’s dire fiscal... 27th January 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Negara will probably tighten soon Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) left the overnight rate unchanged today at 2.75%, as expected. Nevertheless, few will now have any doubts about the durability of the economic upswing while even the BNM... 27th January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Jan.) The further rise in German CPI inflation in January is likely to add to the ECB’s worries about building inflationary pressures. But the chances of inflation reaching the levels seen in mid 2008, when... 27th January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Jan.) January’s EC business and consumer survey adds to evidence that the euro-zone economy has made a pretty good start to the year. But the recovery remains heavily reliant on the industrial and external... 27th January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is German retail property really Europe's best bet? Survey evidence suggests that German commercial property, retail in particular, is now at the top of cross-border investors’ target lists, while the UK has slid down the rankings. This shift in... 27th January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is German retail property really Europe's best bet? Survey evidence suggests that German commercial property, retail in particular, is now at the top of cross-border investors’ target lists, while the UK has slid down the rankings. This shift in... 27th January 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand's Reserve Bank continues to wait and see The decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to leave the cash rate at 3.0% for the fourth consecutive meeting was universally expected. We anticipate that the upswing will gain more... 27th January 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Dec.) Exports ended 2010 strongly but they still fell in the final quarter and net trade is likely to be another negative for Q4 GDP. 27th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed biding its time The tone of the Fed's latest policy statement suggests that neither the most recent pick up in economic growth nor the continued surge in commodity prices have had much of an impact on officials... 26th January 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Recent weakness in gold price unlikely to be sustained The price of gold has fallen in recent weeks as reduced safe haven demand has more than offset the increase in inflation fears associated with the rises in some other commodity prices and the renewed... 26th January 2011 · 1 min read
