Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey still focussed on cutting the carry Despite today’s decision by the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) to cut interest rates, increases in bank reserve requirements that are likely to be announced over the next couple of days mean that... 20th January 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Tombini starts with a hike, attention now turns to fiscal policy Last night, the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) hiked interest rates by 50bps to 11.25%. Rates will probably be increased by another 50bps at March’s meeting too. But if rumours of a fiscal tightening... 20th January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Growth to falter as the fiscal crisis deepens The European economy has largely shrugged off the ongoing fiscal crisis in the euro-zone periphery and continued to expand at a healthy pace. But while the improvement in the global environment and... 20th January 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Coming growth slowdown to ease overheating fears China’s economy ended 2010 with momentum strong but is likely to slow in 2011 as real estate construction spending weakens and stimulus projects reach completion. With inflation also now steadying... 20th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Will arrears and possessions increase to US levels? If we are right that unemployment will rise markedly over the next two years, the rates of arrears and possessions will increase. However, three features of the UK’s mortgage market should keep the... 19th January 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Monthly Survey of Manufacturing (Nov.) November's manufacturing shipments continue to reflect the slow recovery in manufacturing output and a gradual improvement in capacity utilisation. While sales volumes have gone sideways over the last... 19th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update How promising is the recent fall in retail vacancy rates? Retail vacancy rates edged down in H2 2010, but with consumer spending likely to decline this year and more empty retail properties proving harder to re-let than ever before, we do not think that this... 19th January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish rate hike unlikely to trigger sustained tightening cycle With underlying inflation pressures still relatively subdued over the key 12-18 month policy horizon, today’s hike in Polish interest rates is unlikely to be the start of a particularly aggressive... 19th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Dec.) December's data on housing starts are a bit better than they look. Nonetheless, the combination of persistently weak demand and chronic excess supply means that homebuilding activity will remain... 19th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed won't call an early halt to QE2 We don't anticipate that the stronger tone of the incoming economic data will prompt the Fed to curtail its plan to buy $600bn of Treasury securities by June at the next FOMC meeting, which concludes... 19th January 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam set to adjust and target lower inflation Vietnam’s National Party Congress, which closed today, is the most important set-piece meeting of the Communist Party. Comments from the top officials, to no-one’s surprise, suggest that containing... 19th January 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Property tax no panacea Even if we shared the common view that China’s property market is in a bubble, the tax that seems likely to be introduced soon on residential property would not be a solution. 19th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Labour Market Data (Nov./Dec.) On the face of it, the latest UK labour market figures provide some tentative signs that the jobs recovery is back on track. But we continue to think that unemployment will rise sharply over the next... 19th January 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada still sitting on fence The policy statement from the Bank of Canada this morning is unequivocally dovish, no doubt a bit of a disappointment to market analysts, who had expected a more hawkish tone. Indeed, despite more... 18th January 2011 · 1 min read
