US Housing Market Chart Pack Mortgage rates rebound The rebound in 30-year mortgage rates from a record low of 4.2% to just under 5% has put a small dent in the already fragile outlook for the housing market. (See Chart below.) Admittedly, mortgage... 11th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook Weak transactions and falling house prices will be the story of 2011 We have raised our forecast of GDP growth for 2011 from 1% to 1.5%, but overall the economy will lose momentum and the labour market will weaken. Thus, the implications for the housing market are... 11th January 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japan shuffles euro reserves as economy slides Japan’s announcement that it will buy bonds issued by the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) has been heralded by some as further evidence of the international support that might help to... 11th January 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka goes for growth The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) unexpectedly cut its two policy rates at today’s meeting. Inflation accelerated at the end of last year while the economic upswing is set to stay strong... 11th January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portugal - the end of Act 1? It now seems a matter of when, rather than if, Portugal will follow Greece and Ireland in accepting some form of European/IMF bail-out. But will this signal the beginning of the end of the euro-zone... 11th January 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How will the floods in Australia affect the economy? The flooding in Queensland continues to devastate communities and businesses but it is still most likely that the impact on Australia’s economy as a whole will be relatively small and temporary... 11th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will the MPC be panicked into raising rates? The build-up of near-term price pressures has prompted a widespread re-think of when, and how far, interest rates will start to rise. While a near-term rate hike certainly now looks more possible, we... 11th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Dec.) & BCC Survey (Q4) Today’s UK data provided further evidence that economic growth slowed towards the end of last year, although the snow is of course partly to blame. 11th January 2011 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Is Brazil right to accuse the US of currency manipulation? 11th January 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: Outlook improving, but still lagging behind We are revising up our forecast for Mexican GDP growth this year. With consumer demand recovering more strongly than we had originally anticipated and the neighbouring US economy set to receive a... 10th January 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update "Currency war" still phoney but China tensions spreading The Brazilian government’s accusations that the US is engaged in a “currency war” are always good for a headline but continue to have little foundation. China’s manipulation of the renminbi remains a... 10th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Further reasons to be cautious about pace of office rental recovery The latest data from the CBI and PwC suggest that financial services sector output rose in the final three months of 2010 but that employment fell sharply. What’s more, the fact that headcounts are... 10th January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does 2011 hold for Russia? With oil prices nearing $100pb, the near-term prospects for the Russian economy are looking up and the immediate challenge for 2011 will be to prevent inflation accelerating. Nonetheless, higher... 10th January 2011 · 1 min read
China Data Response NBS business conditions survey (Q4) Most companies in China finished 2010 confident about the future. The business environment still seems skewed in favour of large and state-owned firms, which enjoy more government support... 10th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Halifax House Prices (Dec.) According to the Halifax, house prices recorded a modest decline in the year to December 2010. With the pressures on house prices still building, we anticipate that prices will fall considerably... 10th January 2011 · 1 min read
