US Economics Focus Is offshoring undermining the labour market recovery? The continued weakness of US jobs growth can partly be explained by offshoring. Tempted by lower labour costs and lower corporate taxes overseas, multinational firms are expanding employment abroad... 18th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Oil prices another brake on the economic recovery The recent surge in the oil price to just shy of $100pb will act as yet another brake on the UK’s economic recovery this year just as the fiscal tightening is reaching its most intense phase. 18th January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW (Jan.) January’s healthy rise in the headline German ZEW index suggests that, for now at least, investor sentiment is continuing to be buoyed by the upbeat economic data and the weaker euro. 18th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Consumer Prices (Dec.) December’s worse than expected UK consumer prices figures will do nothing to ease concerns that the Monetary Policy Committee is neglecting its inflation-targeting remit. But we continue to think that... 18th January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Banking recovery continues despite familiar risks The good news is that the region’s banking sector is starting to find its feet. The bad news is that familiar vulnerabilities remain in those countries that were hit hardest during the global crisis... 18th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Housing Survey & CLG House Prices (Dec/Nov) Activity and house prices both softened in December. Although the drop in sales instructions was particularly striking, it does not necessarily follow that supply shortages will underpin house prices... 18th January 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Credit risks are growing, but banking sector still strong Latin America’s financial system is still in good shape, especially when compared to that of the developed world. Nevertheless, lending has accelerated throughout the region and default rates, notably... 18th January 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Dec.) Consumer price inflation probably fell in December, as food prices finally stopped rising. Non-food inflation remains low and neither capacity constraints nor monetary growth look likely to push it... 18th January 2011 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Rate expectations unlikely to buoy the euro and sterling for long 18th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) The Fed's QE2 programme of Treasury purchases is yet to have any impact on the broader monetary aggregates, let alone price inflation. The annual growth rate of our Capital Economics' measure of M3... 17th January 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) The Fed's QE2 programme of Treasury purchases is yet to have any impact on the broader monetary aggregates, let alone price inflation. The annual growth rate of our Capital Economics' measure of M3... 17th January 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Dec.) Japanese consumers' gloom deepened in December, in line with our expectations but in contrast both to the consensus and to the more positive tone in the equity market. The deterioration in confidence... 17th January 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly India set to lift rates again later this month India data released last week showed industrial production growth slowed sharply in late 2010 while the annual gain in wholesale prices picked up. The Reserve Bank (RBI) will respond to the latter by... 17th January 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Rearranging the deckchairs In light of our growing concerns about the outlook for Japan’s economy and the risks of a fiscal crisis, we are cutting our end-2011 forecast for the Nikkei 225 from 10,750 to 9,000. This might appear... 17th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Are small businesses missing the recovery? The unexpected dip in the NFIB gauge of small business optimism in December has reignited fears that smaller firms are missing out on the recovery. As we have pointed out before, however, the NFIB... 17th January 2011 · 1 min read
