China Data Response Foreign Trade (Dec.) A combination of strong domestic demand and high commodity prices is helping to narrow China’s trade surplus but the imbalance with the US remains wide. 10th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Has the recovery really ground to a halt? Last week’s CIPS/Markit activity surveys seemed to suggest that the economic recovery ground to a complete halt in December. But there are several reasons to think that the recovery is in better shape... 10th January 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank of Korea set to hike policy rates again We expect Korea’s central bank to lift its policy rate by 25bp to 2.75% on Thursday. This is in contrast to the consensus view which forecasts no change. The worst of the slowdown looks to have come... 10th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is consumption still as sensitive to house prices? The second downward leg in house prices, which began last year, is likely to have a smaller impact on consumer spending than the initial plunge both in proportionate and absolute terms. Nonetheless... 10th January 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly A cautionary note on Japanese equities Optimism about the global economy and buoyancy in overseas markets has allowed the Nikkei to start the year positively. But while Japanese equities may still appear to be relatively cheap compared to... 10th January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Rise in euro-zone inflation to prove short-lived The euro-zone economic data released since Christmas has been fairly encouraging and suggests that, for now at least, the region continues to expand at a pretty healthy pace. But on the face of it... 10th January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is the outlook for Hungarian inflation really so bad? We do not believe that the outlook for Hungarian inflation is as troubling as the National Bank now seems to think. Inflation is still above target and has been rising recent months, but the pick-up... 7th January 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi set to outperform market expectations in 2011 President Hu Jintao’s visit to the US later in January will draw attention back to the renminbi. We believe that markets are underestimating the likely pace of appreciation over the year ahead. In... 7th January 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Three challenges for 2011 Policymakers in the region will face three challenges this year: keeping inflation under control, preventing asset price bubbles from building and managing currency appreciation. All are consequences... 7th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) The 103,000 gain in payroll employment in December was very disappointing after the spectacular 297,000 gain touted by the ADP survey. Admittedly, the drop in the unemployment rate, from 9.8% in... 7th January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Hungarian risk factors on the rise The recovery in Hungary may have a less solid base than some of the recent news flow might suggest. In any event, the positive economic news needs to be offset against the growing political risks and... 7th January 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Dec.) Despite the modest acceleration in employment growth in December, Canada's economy didn't generate enough net new jobs to drive the unemployment rate any lower. The unemployment rate remained... 7th January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemp. (Nov.) & GDP (Q3) & German IP (Nov.) The latest euro-zone data once again highlight the huge divergences that are building up in the region and may also add to fears that the industrial recovery is failing to spread to other sectors of... 7th January 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peruvian rates heading to 4.5% Last night, the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) unexpectedly hiked interest rates by 25bps to 3.25%. With the economy set to grow by 6% this year and the outlook for inflation deteriorating, we... 7th January 2011 · 1 min read
