Global Inflation Watch Inflation to fall back once food spike digested The recent surge in the prices of agricultural commodities will put upward pressure on inflation well into 2011. But inflation in most major economies still looks set to peak some way below the levels... 23rd December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook A bumpy road to recovery We doubt that the economic recovery is on the secure footing required for it to maintain its recent pace. We expect GDP growth of just 1.5% in both 2011 and 2012. But at least the UK has turned a... 22nd December 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What will 2011 hold for emerging markets? We expect growth in emerging economies to stay strong in 2011 and, generally speaking, the major challenge facing policymakers will be to ensure that inflation remains contained and that capital... 22nd December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus The FSA's responsible lending proposals; "a step too far"? Claims that the FSA’s responsible lending proposals will do lasting damage to the size and structure of the mortgage market assume that the historically high gap between house prices and incomes is... 22nd December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Property market still in a holding pattern The economy is holding up well for now, with retail sales volumes, for example, rising in November. However, the labour market is beginning to creak, with employment on the Labour Force Survey falling... 22nd December 2010 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Economic growth to remain muted Our calculations indicate that real GDP did at least expand in October, albeit by a lacklustre 0.1% m/m. That should ease fears of a double-dip recession, after the unexpected contraction in September... 22nd December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Nat. Accounts, Bal. of Payments (Q3) & MPC mins. (Dec.) The raft of UK data released today did little to improve the prospects for the economy next year, highlighting a number of reasons to be concerned over the sustainability of the recovery. 22nd December 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Bah, humbug! Recovery set to disappoint The additional fiscal stimulus in the US and the ongoing credit boom in China have improved the near-term prospects for the global economy, but they do nothing to resolve the underlying imbalances... 22nd December 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Nov) The pick-up in the year-on-year growth rate of exports in November may look encouraging but exports are heading for a big quarterly fall. What's more, imports are relatively buoyant, meaning net trade... 22nd December 2010 · 1 min read
Capital Daily US corporate bonds should have another good year in 2011 22nd December 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Growth to stay strong in 2011 but imbalances will widen The outlook for Latin America in 2011 is, on the whole, pretty good. We expect almost all countries in the region to grow at around their potential rates next year. But while there are few concerns... 21st December 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Has the US really avoided its own lost decade? The conventional wisdom is that America has avoided a repeat of the recent Japanese experience because its policymakers acted much more quickly and aggressively to prevent the economy slipping into a... 21st December 2010 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Nov.) November inflation figures support our view that sluggish economic growth is dampening inflationary pressures. Significant excess capacity and slack in labour markets are likely to keep the underlying... 21st December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Institutional investment in property (Q3) The dip in net purchases of property by UK institutional investors in Q3 may signal the start of a renewed soft patch for property investment. But if we are right that the recent rise in bond yields... 21st December 2010 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank of Japan looks overseas for salvation The Bank of Japan left policy on hold today, as universally expected, while the accompanying statement lent heavily on hopes of a strong recovery in the rest of the world. The problems at home were... 21st December 2010 · 1 min read
