UK Data Response Public Finances (Nov.) November’s UK public finances figures confirmed that the recent stronger performance of the economy has so far had little positive impact on the dire fiscal position. 21st December 2010 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Markets rethink policy outlook Markets have scaled back their expectations for policy tightening in China as senior officials have made clear that they see no need for a major policy shift. The government’s stance is based in part... 21st December 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack A two speed 2011 2010 has been a year of recovery for Emerging Europe. This process should continue in 2011 but there are at least three important points for investors to bear in mind. First, growth is unlikely to... 21st December 2010 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Gold to maintain its allure despite fading inflation fears 21st December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Colliers/Real Estate Capital Pricing Survey The latest Colliers/Real Estate Capital survey confirmed that this year’s gains in commercial property capital values are expected to give way to modest falls of perhaps 2% to 3% in 2011. Positive... 20th December 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Gold price forecast raised to $2,000 The improvement in the near term prospects for the global economy has prompted us raise our end- 2011 price forecasts for industrial commodities. However, our new forecasts of $75 per barrel for oil... 20th December 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina slows in Q3, but overheating still the big threat Official GDP data continue to overstate growth in Argentina but there is still no doubt that the economy has experienced an impressive v-shaped recovery. The problem is that growth has been fuelled by... 20th December 2010 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack 2010 ends on a high Annualised GDP growth is on course to accelerate to around 4% in the fourth quarter, from 2.5% in the third. Moreover, the new fiscal stimulus means that we now expect growth to average 3% in 2011... 20th December 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Recession risks growing GDP will almost certainly fall in the current quarter but we are increasingly concerned that it may drop further in the first three months of 2011 as well, meaning that Japan will technically be in... 20th December 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly European policymakers still doing the bare minimum The news that EU leaders reached agreement last week on the treaty changes required to establish a “permanent crisis mechanism” in 2013 is unlikely to ease pressures in the peripheral bond markets... 20th December 2010 · 1 min read
Capital Daily EU statement does little to address investors' uncertainties 20th December 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly New Zealand's upswing to regain traction soon New Zealand Q3 GDP data, published overnight on Thursday, are expected to be weak. We forecast that GDP actually fell in q/q terms while the consensus anticipates only 0.1% q/q growth, after an... 20th December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the MPC's credibility really in danger? Last week’s November CPI figures showing inflation rising again to 3.3% has prompted further concerns that the Monetary Policy Committee is in danger of losing its anti-inflation credibility. A year... 20th December 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly How far will the fiscal stimulus boost growth? The recent run of stronger economic data has prompted us to raise our fourth-quarter GDP growth forecast to 4% annualised, from 2.5%. Based on the higher starting point for GDP going into next year... 20th December 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean rates edge higher but future pace of tightening will slow The Central Bank of Chile (CBC) hiked interest rates by 25bps to 3.25% last night, as expected. But the tone of the accompanying statement was less hawkish than in previous months, reinforcing our... 17th December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Lenders' leniency hinges on low inflation and interest rates Recent Bank of England and De Montfort University reports suggest that deleveraging in the UK commercial property sector is likely to continue in a slow but reasonably orderly fashion. However, one... 17th December 2010 · 1 min read
