Global Markets Update 2011 looks less promising for the US equity market The US equity market is ending the year with a flourish. The S&P 500 has risen by about 5% so far in December, and is not far shy of our year-end target of 1250. Nonetheless, we are sceptical the... 14th December 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Nov.) The Holiday shopping season appears to have got off to a very good start, suggesting that fourth-quarter consumption growth will be strong. But without a meaningful acceleration in real income growth... 14th December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response FSA Mortgage Lending Statistics (Q3) Today’s FSA lending data confirm that mortgage lending criteria remained very tight in the third quarter. And while arrears and possessions improved as expected, the full impact of public sector job... 14th December 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus The investment implications of China's tightening labour market The ongoing structural shift in China’s workforce will cause economic growth to slow and is likely to result in higher, though still manageable, inflation. Household incomes may finally start rising... 14th December 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW (Dec.), Euro-zone Industrial Production (Oct.) The rise in German ZEW economic sentiment in December and October’s increase in euro-zone industrial production confirm that the euro-zone recovery has not yet run out of steam. 14th December 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Why have industrial rental values in Rome been so badly hit? Their high starting point, a large development pipeline and a greater sensitivity to developments in the domestic economy all help to explain the relatively large falls in industrial rental values in... 14th December 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand set for a prolonged fiscal tightening The half-yearly Economic and Fiscal Update published overnight in New Zealand makes it clear that the May Budget will be a tough affair even though 2011 will be an election year. It is essential that... 14th December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) November’s consumer prices figures will have done little to ease concerns over the continued stubbornness of price pressures in the UK economy. 14th December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Housing Survey & CLG House Prices (Nov/Oct) Uncertainty stemming from the impact of the public sector spending cuts on the labour market, combined with the continued restrictions on mortgage supply, is taking its toll on the housing market. Two... 14th December 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is this is the beginning of the end for low US yields? We do not believe that the recent jump in Treasury yields marks the start of a prolonged bear market. Provided, as we expect, the economic recovery ultimately disappoints and the Fed keeps short-term... 13th December 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What can euro-zone policymakers do? Euro-zone policymakers face enormous challenges to avoid a near-term financial disaster, reduce governments’ debt burdens in the medium term and foster economic growth. Given the scale of these tasks... 13th December 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Negative Equity (Q3) The fall in the proportion of homeowners in negative equity in the third quarter offers little comfort since it was driven by foreclosures rather than a rise in prices. The second downward leg in... 13th December 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What would WTO accession mean for Russia? Russia’s accession to the WTO is back in the news and, not for the first time in the past decade, it seems that membership talks might now be concluded at some point within the next twelve months. We... 13th December 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Are policymakers being complacent about inflation? Consumer price inflation increased by much more than expected in November. But recent policy moves and official statements, including that from this weekend’s high-level policy meeting, give the... 13th December 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Upside risks to the Tankan Japan will almost certainly top the G7 league table for GDP growth in 2010 (with Germany the likely runner-up), but this rebound has to be seen in the context of a relatively low starting point... 13th December 2010 · 1 min read
