UK Markets Chart Pack Markets reassess outlook for monetary policy The continued run of positive data on the UK’s economic recovery has led markets to reassess the outlook for monetary policy. Markets now expect official interest rates to rise by around 1% over the... 9th December 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Dec.) Most of the peripheral euro-zone economies, excluding Spain, are still struggling to meet their budget deficit targets for this year, suggesting that additional fiscal measures will be needed next... 9th December 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Asset price bubbles – where are the greatest risks? We do not believe there is a bubble in government bonds. Bubbles are more likely to develop in emerging markets but are not yet widespread. Instead, our greatest concern is the high levels of... 9th December 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are Treasuries overvalued compared to US equities? Aside from this week’s fiscal stimulus proposals, one explanation being provided for the sell-off in US government bonds is that they look expensive relative to US equities. We agree, but we don’t... 9th December 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil slows in Q3, but should bounce in Q4 The slowdown in Brazilian GDP growth to 0.5% q/q in Q3, from 1.8% q/q in Q2, should be a shortlived blip and the economy appears to have picked up pace once again in Q4. Looking ahead to 2011, the... 9th December 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further Bank of Korea tightening only a matter of time The Bank of Korea (BoK) held its policy rate at 2.5% today, as expected. Nonetheless, the economy should regain momentum during the course of next year while inflation is likely to trend higher. The... 9th December 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portugal's toughest tests still lie ahead The ECB’s announcement that it would step up its bond purchase programme and extend liquidity provision to the banking sector has eased immediate pressure on Portugal. But the initial positive market... 9th December 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Does the ruble pose a threat to the Russian retail rental recovery? Retail rental values in Emerging Europe are sensitive to currency fluctuations. Indeed, the weakness of the Romanian leu may help to explain why retail rents in Bucharest have been so weak this year... 9th December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update 2011 to be the year of QE2 With the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) still sitting firmly on the proverbial fence, this month’s no-change decision is all but certain to be repeated in the next month or two. But we still think... 9th December 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand to keep policy rates unchanged for longer The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left the cash rate at 3.0% earlier today, as expected. What’s more, the Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) was downbeat, yet again. We have adjusted our forecast... 9th December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Retail suffering from rising vacancy amongst non-prime buildings IPD vacancy rate data support the widely-held view that non-prime property has suffered more than prime from a rise in empty floorspace over the past two years. The figures also suggest that the... 9th December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Trade (Oct.) October’s UK trade figures add to other recent evidence suggesting that the external sector is finally playing a role in the economic recovery. That said, given the boost from the lower pound, we... 9th December 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How should Russia tackle its nascent inflation problem? The pick-up in Russian inflation over the past couple of months has been driven primarily by a surge in food prices, which should be temporary in nature. Instead, the bigger risk to the inflation... 9th December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Halifax House Prices (Nov.) The underlying downward trend in house prices on the Halifax measure accelerated in November. With the debate as to whether house prices are falling settled, the issue now is how severe future falls... 9th December 2010 · 1 min read
Capital Daily What does further US fiscal stimulus mean for asset markets? 9th December 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update German funds: liquidations point to downside risks for property prices For now, the recent poor health of some German open-ended property funds is unlikely to have a meaningful impact on European property investment demand. But the potential for more fund liquidations... 8th December 2010 · 1 min read
