US Economics Weekly Businesses to the rescue? The proposed favourable change to the tax treatment of capital expenditure raises the question of whether it will actually be businesses, rather than consumers, that rescue the economy from a number... 13th December 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Still no light at the end of the tunnel for the periphery Last week was a mixed one for the euro-zone’s peripheral economies. While it was a relatively quiet week in the financial markets, the economic news did nothing to alter our view that growth prospects... 13th December 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly India's Reserve Bank to pause, not stop The Reserve Bank (RBI) will probably keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.25% on Thursday, while the cash reserve ratio will almost certainly be held steady at 6.0% given ongoing tight liquidity... 13th December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Industrial recovery won't save the economy Last week’s economic data releases brought further encouraging signs that that the long-awaited re-balancing of the UK economy away from consumers and the public sector towards industry and exports is... 13th December 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Emerging Asia will target inflation and asset bubbles Economic growth across Emerging Asia has continued to ease. However, this is just a return to what is normal and can be sustained rather than the start of a severe and prolonged downturn. Most of the... 10th December 2010 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Oct.) While a restart in crude oil pipeline activity helped lift energy exports to the US, today's news was really about the surprise jump in non-oil exports to countries further abroad. Indeed, with the... 10th December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Should the shift towards repayment mortgages be welcomed? The increased share of first-time buyers on repayment mortgages should be welcomed. The high level of interest-only lending during the boom years contributed to the unsustainable gap that opened up... 10th December 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Oct.) The sharp decline in the international trade deficit to a nine-month low of $38.7bn in October, from $44.6bn, suggests that our 2.5% forecast for annualised fourth-quarter GDP growth will need to be... 10th December 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peruvian rates on hold as currency concerns persist Last night, the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) held interest rates at 3.0% for the third consecutive month. Even though the outlook for inflation is deteriorating, currency concerns are likely to... 10th December 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish economy becoming increasingly unbalanced Annual Turkish GDP growth slowed more sharply than expected in Q3, but the economy appears to have fared better in the fourth quarter and is still set to outperform the region over the coming years... 10th December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Producer Prices (Nov.) November’s producer prices figures suggested that cost pressures in the industrial sector are still pretty strong. 10th December 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Strong credit growth stokes expectations of tightening Today’s data showing continued rapid lending and very strong import growth will do nothing to calm market concerns that monetary policy in China is falling behind the curve. A rate hike seems imminent... 10th December 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Nov.) Japanese consumers continued to turn more pessimistic in November, with confidence undermined by worries about the labour market and a reduced willingness to buy durable goods. The latter will almost... 10th December 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Flow of Funds (Q3) The latest Flow of Funds accounts from the Fed show that the public sector is now accumulating debt at a faster pace than the private sector is paying it down. 10th December 2010 · 1 min read
Capital Daily The US equity risk premium is likely to rise again next year 10th December 2010 · 1 min read
