UK Commercial Property Update Lenders' leniency hinges on low inflation and interest rates Recent Bank of England and De Montfort University reports suggest that deleveraging in the UK commercial property sector is likely to continue in a slow but reasonably orderly fashion. However, one... 17th December 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Dec.) & Euro-zone Trade (Oct.) December’s Ifo survey adds to the evidence that the German economy continues to expand at a rapid rate. For Germany at least, the problems in the periphery are for now being more than offset by the... 17th December 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is there any value left in European commercial property markets? A comparison of prime commercial property yields to estimates of their fair value levels presents a mixed picture. While a few seem overvalued, and a few more fairly valued, many still look quite... 17th December 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey takes a bold step to stem speculative inflows Tonight’s decision by the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) to cut its benchmark interest rate by 50bps to 6.5% is a bold step aimed at slowing speculative capital inflows. Ultimately it may have to be... 16th December 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Could the next move in Brazilian rates be down? The incoming administration in Brazil has a historic opportunity to re-balance the policy mix in favour of tighter fiscal policy and looser monetary policy (and a weaker currency). What’s more, there... 16th December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack A reasonable end to the year in prospect Consumer spending could end the year on a relatively strong note. But, we still expect the spending recovery to fade pretty quickly at the start of next year. 16th December 2010 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Further substantial easing to come The Bank of Japan’s Policy Board is unlikely to announce any major policy initiatives at the two-day meeting which concludes next Tuesday. However, we continue to think that the central bank will have... 16th December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales & Inflation Expectations (Nov.) November’s official UK retail sales figures suggested that consumers are still spending relatively freely. But the combination of tax rises, high inflation and public sector job losses make for a... 16th December 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Two elephants leave no room for more fiscal stimulus The corporation tax cuts agreed by the Cabinet today and the supplementary budget passed at the end of November are simply tinkering at the margin. The mountain of public debt and looming demographic... 16th December 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update European Council meeting unlikely to mark a turning point This week’s European Council meeting provides policymakers with the chance to prove that they will do whatever is necessary to get the region’s public finances on a stable footing. But in reality... 16th December 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India's monetary policy tightening to resume soon India’s Reserve Bank (RBI) kept its repo rate unchanged today at 6.25%, as was widely expected. Nevertheless, the monetary policy tightening is not over. The upswing will stay strong in coming... 16th December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Is now a good time to buy residential property as an inflation hedge? Growing fears about the inflation outlook do not improve the case for buying residential property at the present time. Given how high real house prices currently are, we think that it would be unwise... 16th December 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground - Q4 2010 China’s businesses have grown in confidence in the last quarter but banks and consumers are far less upbeat. Banks are increasingly worried about overheating and the need for policy tightening... 16th December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales & Inflation Expectations (Nov.) November’s official UK retail sales figures suggested that consumers are still spending relatively freely. But the combination of tax rises, high inflation and public sector job losses make for a... 16th December 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs & Final CPI (Dec.) December’s euro-zone PMI surveys suggested that the economic recovery in the region maintained reasonable momentum towards the end of 2010. 16th December 2010 · 1 min read
