UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) Broad money growth is still heading in the wrong direction. Bank lending remains weak too, and we continue to expect relatively tight credit conditions to act as a brake on the economic recovery in... 4th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Nov.) The Bank of England’s measure of mortgage approvals for house purchase rose for first time in seven months in November. However, mortgage lending remains incredibly low by historical standards. This... 4th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Manuf. (Dec.) & H'hold borrowing (Nov.) Today’s UK data suggested that the economy ended 2010 on a relatively firm note. However, 2011 is set to be a challenging year and we continue to think that the recovery will struggle to maintain the... 4th January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & German Unemployment (Dec.) December’s bigger-than-expected rise in euro-zone CPI inflation probably reflected energy and food effects. Underlying price pressures in the region remain very weak. 4th January 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The big risk for 2011 Ask any number of people in China to identify the biggest economic problem the country faces in 2011 and they, along with most analysts, will agree: inflation. They may all be wrong. 4th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec.) The improvement in December's ISM manufacturing index, along with the rebound in construction spending in November, suggests that the recovery is regaining some of the momentum lost during the Summer. 3rd January 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Vietnam likely to target stability over growth Data published in Vietnam over the next few days should confirm that the economy expanded at a rapid pace in Q4 but inflation remains far too high. What’s more, recent debt downgrades have highlighted... 27th December 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Downside risks stem mainly from crippling debt In the last US Weekly of the year we want to flag up the main risks surrounding our new forecast that GDP will grow by 3.0% in 2011, before slowing to 2.0% in 2012. The main upside risk is that we are... 27th December 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Another tough year ahead We have revised up our near-term forecasts for the euro-zone economy in response to improving global economic prospects and signs that domestic demand may be picking up. But with the region’s... 27th December 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How it could all go horribly wrong Markets are in a festive mood, but the more we think about the near-term prospects for the Japanese economy, the less merry we become. Indeed, it now seems more likely than not that Japan will stumble... 24th December 2010 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Oct.) The latest indicators point toward fourth quarter GDP growth of around 2% annualised; a better performance than third quarter growth of 1%, but nothing spectacular considering the significant excess... 23rd December 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders & Personal Spending (Nov.) The data releases today support our estimate that GDP growth probably accelerated to 4.0% annualised in the fourth quarter, from 2.6% in the third. The main difference is the pick up in consumption... 23rd December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Don't write off the high street yet We had been expecting the year to end on something of a high note for the high street, but obviously the snow has dampened these hopes somewhat. That said, people who have spent less than they... 23rd December 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand's recovery stumbles but should not stop Q3 GDP, published early today, was weak and in line with our below-consensus expectation. Nevertheless, most of the softness was due to temporary factors. The upswing will probably regain traction in... 23rd December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Nov.) The decline in mortgage market activity continued in November. Approvals for house purchase dropped to their lowest level for twenty months. With lenders’ funding issues set to persist, if not... 23rd December 2010 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth accelerating at end of year The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economy is growing faster than its sustainable rate at the end of 2010. With the government focused on maintaining rapid growth... 23rd December 2010 · 1 min read
