In the last US Weekly of the year we want to flag up the main risks surrounding our new forecast that GDP will grow by 3.0% in 2011, before slowing to 2.0% in 2012. The main upside risk is that we are overstating the restraining impact that the balance sheet problems affecting households and banks will continue to have on the economy's growth rate. The various downside risks are more diverse, but they all share the same root cause: excessive debt.
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