US Economics Weekly Economy still years from recovering "lost" output This week's release of GDP for the fourth quarter will confirm that the real economy has finally returned to the size it was before the recession struck. But it will be some years yet before the US... 24th January 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Faltering recovery adds to fiscal challenges The appointment of Kaoru Yosano as Minister for the Economy and Fiscal Policy has revived discussion of the case for a hike in the consumption tax, but no decision is likely until mid-year at the... 24th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Sterling threat will help to keep rates low Much of the pound’s recent strength appears to have reflected the rise in inflation in the UK and the growing expectation that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will soon be forced to raise official... 21st January 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Interest rate hikes remain a distant prospect in Mexico As expected, the Central Bank of Mexico (BANXICO) held interest rates at 4.5% this afternoon. Speculation is mounting that rising food prices could trigger a rate hike over the coming months but the... 21st January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly EFSF plans won't solve the crisis European policymakers’ hopes of preventing the peripheral debt crisis from escalating further are continuing to focus heavily on the role of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF). Not only... 21st January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Portugal's presidential election add fuel to the fire? Portugal has survived its first market tests of 2011 and resisted pressure to accept outside support. But with government bond yields still at very high levels, the Government’s struggle to go without... 21st January 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What does the Tunisian crisis mean for the Middle East? Much of the coverage of the wider fall-out from the crisis in Egypt has focused on the potential impact on oil prices, but this threat to the global recovery is almost certainly exaggerated. Instead... 21st January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Consumers battle against rising VAT and inflation Abstracting from the effects of the snow, some sort of sluggish recovery in consumer spending still seems to be underway. However, the outlook for this year as a whole remains bleak. 21st January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Picking apart the mixed messages on rates The past month has produced conflicting signals about the future path of monetary policy in the region. While policymakers in Hungary and Poland have begun the year by hiking interest rates, their... 21st January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Retail Sales (Dec.) December’s official UK retail sales figures provided further confirmation of the adverse effects of the snow on high street spending last month. Obviously this is just a temporary factor and spending... 21st January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jan.) January’s Ifo index echoes the upbeat tone of most of the other short-term indicators on the German economy, including the ZEW survey released earlier this week. 21st January 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Inflation fears to fade We expect 2011 to be a year of generally disappointing growth and fading fears of inflation in the developed economies. The performance of emerging markets is likely to be more mixed this year than... 21st January 2011 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Rising commodity prices having mixed effects Rapidly rising commodity prices are beginning to have a marked impact on inflation, real spending and the external trade balance. Over the past six months, agricultural commodity prices have increased... 20th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Dec.) The decent increase in existing home sales in December takes them marginally above the levels seen before sales were boosted and subsequently depressed by the homebuyer tax credit. But high... 20th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Industrial rental values still likely to edge lower this year Various near-term indicators currently point to a strong recovery in industrial property rental values in 2011. This may well be the experience for some landlords. On average, however, with the... 20th January 2011 · 1 min read
