Europe Economics Weekly ECB & rising euro pose new threats Last week’s successful first EFSF bond issue was hailed by some as a strong vote of confidence in the euro-zone. We are not so sure. The rise in Portuguese bond yields back up to the 7% danger level... 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly The Government needs a back-up plan Following last week’s news of a surprise drop in GDP at the end of last year, the wisdom of the Government’s austerity plans has once again been called into question. Accordingly, the coalition would... 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Three ways the fiscal crisis could play out The potential market implications of a fiscal crisis may not be as clear cut as some assume, particularly for JGBs, but it is hard to see any outcome that does not involve some further weakness both... 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Slower capital value growth in store for 2011 In non-euro-zone Europe, we envisage a divergence between the performance of commercial property markets in emerging and developed economies. Reflecting the relatively strong outlook for economic... 28th January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Commercial property recovery to run out of steam in 2011 Much of the coverage of the wider fall-out from the crisis in Egypt has focused on the potential impact on oil prices, but this threat to the global recovery is almost certainly exaggerated. Instead... 28th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q4 1st Estimate) The acceleration in GDP growth to 3.2% annualised in the fourth quarter, from 2.6% in the third, confirms that the economic recovery regained some lost momentum over the closing stages of last year. 28th January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland stays ahead of the pack but twin deficit worries persist Today’s estimate that the Polish economy expanded by 3.8% in 2010 was in line with our forecast and reinforces the view that the country is leading the recovery in Emerging Europe. GDP should grow by... 28th January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) The latest euro-zone money and credit data continue to suggest that inflationary pressures in the region as a whole remain subdued, adding to evidence that the recent sharp rise in the headline CPI... 28th January 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Inflation concerns refuse to fade Inflation is on the rise throughout most of Latin America. For now at least, this has been driven almost entirely by an increase global commodity prices, which has quickly passed through to headline... 28th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Is replacing stamp duty with an annual tax on property a good idea? Theoretically at least, the OECD’s recent proposal to replace stamp duty with an annual tax on property could improve labour market mobility and discourage excessive consumption of housing. But... 28th January 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment & Retail Sales (Dec.) The fall in unemployment in December is obviously welcome but the big story is the collapse in retail sales. After the better news on exports yesterday, the risks to our preiiminary forecast of a 0.6%... 28th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is the housing market heading for a double-dip? Low interest rates alone will not prevent the recent falls in house prices from being extended, perhaps significantly this year. Rather, we expect that the benefits of low interest rates will be... 28th January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian recovery still fails to impress Today’s raft of December activity data from Russia is, on balance, pretty disappointing and suggests that the economy is only recovering slowly from last summer’s drought. Growth should accelerate in... 28th January 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Tombini makes his mark The minutes from this month’s meeting of the Brazilian Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) were unequivocally hawkish and should banish any lingering concerns about a shift in policy priorities under... 28th January 2011 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Japan's fiscal problems will return to haunt the markets 28th January 2011 · 1 min read
