Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Dec.) December’s sharp fall in German industrial production is not as worrying as it seems. Although GDP growth in Q4 will not be as strong as we had previously anticipated, owing to bad weather, it still... 8th February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Investment case for the Italian retail market remains weak Italy’s historic position as one of the euro-zone’s most expensive retail markets might suggest that the recent stability of Italian retail yields, while yields in other euro-zone markets have fallen... 8th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Housing Survey & BRC Retail Sales (Jan.) Unlike consumer spending, the housing market began the year on a weak footing. Indeed, the drop in completed sales and another drop in buyer enquiries means that January’s improvement in the RICS past... 8th February 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Jan.) The decline in the current conditions component of the Economy Watchers Survey (EWS) in January suggests that activity remained weak at the start of the first quarter after the likely contraction in... 8th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Are lenders really set to abandon delay and pray policies? It seems almost certain that over the coming quarters lenders will become less willing to extend maturing loans and will also increase the pressure on borrowers to sell property and repay non... 7th February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Spanish industrial rental downturn has further to run The latest macro indicators for Spain paint a weak picture of industrial occupier demand. Unfortunately, our view that the economy will tip back into recession this year suggests that high levels of... 7th February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to look for from Hungary's spending cuts The Hungarian government is due to begin debating a “structural revamp” of the public finances in the coming weeks, which will entail substantial budget cuts. A first reading of the Growth and... 7th February 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update US-China trade tensions remain a threat The US Treasury has again chosen not to label China a currency manipulator. With US economic prospects looking brighter, the immediate risk of a flare up in tensions over China’s trade and currency... 7th February 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia HSBC/Markit PMI (Jan.) January’s PMI data shows that Saudi Arabia’s non-oil private sector continues its strong growth trend. The index rose from 61.3 in December to 63.8 in January. This puts the index at its highest value... 7th February 2011 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Uncertainty makes February rate rise unlikely The minutes of the last Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting suggested that the Committee was edging closer towards a near-term rate hike. But the sharp slowdown in the economic recovery at the end... 7th February 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia's upswing set to stay in good shape Q4 GDP data for Indonesia, published today, were stronger than expected. The upswing will almost certainly remain impressive, with domestic demand leading the way. Government bonds will continue to... 7th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Higher food prices eat into payroll tax cut In light of recent increases in oil and agricultural commodity prices, we now expect CPI inflation to peak at 2.5% this summer, up from our previous forecast of 2.0%. But this is unlikely to sway the... 7th February 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Slipping back into recession The Japanese economy almost certainly contracted in the final quarter of 2010 as government subsidies were withdrawn. The consensus view is that this is not a major concern because GDP is widely... 7th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Optimism about the recovery could prove premature The mood improved considerably after last week’s CIPS/Markit surveys which seemed to suggest that the recovery is back on track again. But, the big picture is that the underlying trend in both the... 7th February 2011 · 1 min read
