US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jan.) The rebound in mortgage rates to a 10-month high has driven mortgage applications lower once again. With demand for mortgage borrowing still so weak, it is hard to see housing activity strengthening... 9th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Will central London property be immune from further falls? In the next two to three years, central London house prices will be more resilient than the wider market. But we still expect them to give up ground. It is plausible that central London house prices... 9th February 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Jan.) Japanese consumers checked their pessimism in January . Nonetheless, consumer confidence and its key components remain relatively subdued. With the scope for further fiscal stimulus now largely... 9th February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Bank debt plans won’t solve Ireland’s fiscal problems Speculation is growing that the next Irish Government will attempt to restructure some of the nationalised banks’ senior debt. But such a move, while no doubt popular with taxpayers, would do little... 9th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Trade (Dec.) The deterioration in the UK’s trade position in December primarily reflects temporary factors such as the snow. However, the underlying trend is still pretty dismal. 9th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is the MPC acting asymmetrically? The MPC’s reluctance to raise interest rates despite persistently high inflation has led to accusations that it has been inconsistent in its treatment of its inflation target. However, there may be... 9th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Stagflation fears hold UK equities back The recent poor run of news on the domestic economic recovery and fears that the Monetary Policy Committee is moving towards hiking official interest rates soon in response to high inflation appear to... 9th February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How quickly is Russia moving towards a free float? The pace at which Russian monetary policy is shifting from a regime centred on targeting the exchange rate to a regime based on targeting inflation remains unclear, but our calculations of FX... 9th February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek fiscal position remains deeply worrying On the face of it, the recent fall in Greek sovereign CDS premia and press reports suggesting that Greece will receive the fourth tranche of loans from its bail-out package in March are encouraging... 9th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Project Merlin no magic fix for bank lending We doubt that the lending commitments announced as part of today’s “Project Merlin” will lead to a significant pick-up in bank lending growth. 9th February 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Inflation still being driven by food and energy prices Data released this morning show that rising global commodity prices continue to be the main driver of inflation in both Brazil and Chile. But while these effects may fade over the course of 2011... 8th February 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Initial thoughts on the economic impact of the Egyptian crisis As the global fall-out from the Egyptian crisis subsides, at least for now, the local economy’s problems are only just beginning. The current regime is clearly gearing up for a fight to remain in... 8th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How hard would a rate rise hit households? Perhaps the biggest risk facing the household sector is the possibility of a near-term interest rate rise. We do not think that a modest rate rise would have a disastrous effect on household incomes... 8th February 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update People's Bank aims to curb speculation by savers Today’s interest rate announcement again showed the People’s Bank applying the biggest rate increases to long-term deposits, in an attempt to encourage savers to keep their money in banks rather than... 8th February 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka still likely to tighten policy this year The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) kept its policy rates unchanged at today’s meeting, as expected. The upswing will probably stay strong while inflation is likely to accelerate in coming months. We... 8th February 2011 · 1 min read
