US Economic Outlook Recovery still dependent on policy stimulus The recovery regained momentum over the final few months of last year and, helped by the boost from the latest fiscal stimulus, we expect GDP growth of 3% this year. 16th February 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Monthly Survey of Manufacturing (Dec.) December's survey of manufacturers was a disappointment, to us and almost everyone. Not only was growth in shipments much weaker than most had expected, more importantly declines in new and unfilled... 16th February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Belgian GDP (Q4) Today’s Q4 GDP figure suggests that the Belgian economy continued to expand at a modest pace. But growth is likely to slow in coming quarters and given the country’s ongoing political crisis and large... 16th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production & Producer Prices (Jan.) The 0.3% m/m increase in manufacturing output in January is actually quite encouraging, given that the already reported drop in average hours worked by manufacturing employees last month suggests the... 16th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Housing Starts (Jan.) Despite the rebound in January, housing starts remain at an unusually low level. This is unlikely to change when there is little need for new homes or when falling prices and rising costs are denting... 16th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (Feb.) February’s Bank of England Inflation Report left the outlook for UK interest rates very finely balanced. But we remain firmly of the view that the markets are currently significantly overstating the... 16th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Labour Market Data (Dec./Jan.) The latest UK labour market figures provide further evidence that the jobs recovery has gone into reverse. We continue to think that over the next few years unemployment will climb from its current... 16th February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Spanish GDP (Q4) Spain’s final Q4 GDP release confirmed that the economy outperformed its southern European counterparts at the end of last year. But we still think that Spain is set for a pretty tough 2011. Indeed... 16th February 2011 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Emerging market equities should not underperform for long 16th February 2011 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish Riksbank becoming more hawkish As expected, the Swedish Riksbank responded to the economy’s ongoing robust revival by raising interest rates and revising up its interest rate forecast. Nonetheless, we still think that weaker than... 15th February 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian growth remains two-speed It is tempting to attribute the stagnation in Brazilian retail sales in December to recent efforts to curb credit growth but in truth the impact of these measures is unlikely to show up in the data... 15th February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish policymakers in 'wait and see' mode Today’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 6.25% suggests that the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) has reached the end of its rate-cutting cycle. While policymakers’ unconventional policy... 15th February 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peruvian economy carrying plenty of momentum in 2011 Peru released monthly GDP data for December this afternoon which suggest that output increased by 9% last year. With the economy carrying plenty of momentum we are revising up our forecast and now... 15th February 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What are Egypt's prospects after Mubarak? Following the resignation of President Hosni Mubarak on Friday, Egypt has only taken the first step to economic prosperity and political plurality. The work does not end with the departure of the ex... 15th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update What effect would a rise in Bank Rate have on mortgage interest rates? In principle, lenders appear to have scope to absorb any rise in Bank Rate within their already high margins. Yet lenders are now raising the cost of some mortgages in response to higher swap rates... 15th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) Despite the acceleration in the growth rate of the narrow M1 monetary aggregate, the growth of the broader M2 aggregate remains muted and our M3 measure is still shrinking. 15th February 2011 · 1 min read
