Emerging Europe Economics Update How exposed is Turkey to the Middle East crisis? Growing concerns over unrest in the Middle East have sparked a sell-off in equity markets across the world over the past week, and Turkish stocks have been hit harder than most. Yet trade and... 24th February 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Have oil prices already overshot? Another day, another $5 on the cost of a barrel of crude. At this rate it will not be long before prices revisit the highs above $140 seen in 2008. Given the pace at which markets are moving and... 24th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK CBI Services (Q1) & Dist. Trades (Feb.) Surveys The CBI’s latest surveys suggest that any bounce-back in overall household spending following December’s heavy snow has been short-lived. We continue to think that household spending may fall by... 24th February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Feb.) February’s EC business and consumer survey adds to evidence that the euro-zone recovery has regained momentum in Q1 and that the ECB’s hawkish stance may harden at next week’s Governing Council... 24th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update With activity so low, why aren't prices falling more quickly? The low level of forced selling is almost certainly the main reason why house prices are currently falling more slowly that the ultra-low levels of housing market activity would suggest. However, we... 24th February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update High vacancy rates will stunt euro-zone office rental value growth It now seems clear that prime rental values in most euro-zone office markets are either at a floor, or have entered a recovery phase. But with weak prospects for occupier demand and high vacancy rates... 24th February 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Housing downturn to hit economy hard Because Canada emerged from the global financial crisis largely unaffected, many Canadians now appear to believe that the economy is somehow invincible. This level of hubris is disconcerting when... 23rd February 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Housing downturn to hit economy hard Because Canada emerged from the global financial crisis largely unaffected, many Canadians now appear to believe that the economy is somehow invincible. This level of hubris is disconcerting when... 23rd February 2011 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Improving activity surveys points to strong first half The economic outlook appears to have improved recently, with both the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices improving to multi-year highs in January. We certainly anticipate a strong first... 23rd February 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Oil spike alone unlikely to cause a global recession The turmoil in the Middle East has prompted a chorus of warnings that the world economy could be dragged back into recession if the price of oil continues to climb. We were already expecting global... 23rd February 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jan.) The upward trend in existing home sales is set to remain slow and steady rather than speedy and spectacular. 23rd February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish rate call on a knife edge, but hike now looking less likely Today’s data from Poland were a bit of a disappointment and leave next week’s interest rate decision finely balanced. Meanwhile, recent comments from MPC members have been as contradictory as ever. It... 23rd February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How would a rate rise affect confidence? In this morning’s MPC minutes, the Committee voiced some concern about how a rate rise might affect consumer confidence. The relationship between interest rates and consumer confidence has weakened... 23rd February 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hong Kong property bubble growing Hong Kong’s economy is growing at a healthy pace but residential property looks increasingly overvalued and today’s budget underlines that the government has few effective means to help. 23rd February 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuelan economy still struggling to recover The Venezuelan economy finally returned to positive annual growth in Q4 last year. But while the recent rally in oil prices has eased the country’s dollar drought and should support GDP growth of 1%... 23rd February 2011 · 1 min read
