UK Economics Update A strong recovery needs faster money growth The Monetary Policy Committee has suggested that nominal GDP growth can be sustained even if money growth remains weak. This might happen to some extent. But the big picture is that money growth at... 28th February 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Consumers continue to drive growth in Chile Last month’s slowdown in Chilean retail sales growth, coupled with a pick-up in the manufacturing sector, will help to ease mounting concerns about the unbalanced nature of recent growth. But in... 28th February 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q4 National Economic Accounts) The rebound in GDP growth to 3.3% annualised in the fourth quarter, from growth of 1.8% in the third, confirms that the economy regained some lost momentum late last year. Still, we forecast that... 28th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Budget fight could get nasty The growing spat surrounding the possibility of a Federal government shutdown and the debate over raising the debt ceiling could turn out to be nothing more than old-fashioned political theatre, with... 28th February 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Policymakers tighten the screw As inflation continues its steady rise, policymakers across Latin America are tightening the screw. Interest rates were increased in Chile, Colombia and Peru earlier this month and are likely to be... 28th February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update New Irish Government faces daunting challenges News that Fine Gael and Labour are likely to form a coalition Government with a healthy majority will reduce political uncertainty in Ireland. But the new Government faces a major battle to improve... 28th February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Recovery continues, but at a slower pace Q4 GDP data from across Emerging Europe show that the region’s recovery continued in the final months of last year. Of the economies that have reported data so far, all posted positive quarterly... 28th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (Jan.) The small gain in house prices in January is unlikely to signal an end to the weakening trend in house prices. Indeed, if our economic forecasts are correct, the downward pressures on house prices are... 28th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Sentiment and investment activity take a knock All-property rental values remained broadly stable in January, though again this owed much to rises in the City and West End office markets, which offset falls elsewhere. All-property initial yields... 28th February 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jan.) The jumps in both industrial production and the value of retail sales in January look good but the former was smaller than expected and the latter was flattered by higher prices for food and fuel... 28th February 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Another headwind Japan could do without We expect the latest spike in oil prices to be short-lived as fears over supply from the Middle East and North Africa start to ease. Nonetheless, Japanese inflation will pick up further in the coming... 28th February 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Australia's central bank still likely to hike this year The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is virtually certain to keep its cash rate on hold at 4.75% on Tuesday. Low inflation, sluggish household spending, and the uncertainty created by the recent... 28th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Could we see a US rate hike this year? The markets will be watching for any signs of a shift in tone in Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's semi-annual testimony to Congress this week. Despite signs that the economic recovery is gathering momentum... 28th February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will the German revival save the periphery? Healthy rises in the euro-zone business surveys in February add to evidence that the region as a whole and Germany in particular have made a strong start to the year. But while a bout of robust German... 28th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Who else might join the MPC's hawks? The MPC’s hawks now need the support of just two more members to push through an interest rate rise. Some members (such as Paul Tucker) look more likely to switch sides than others (such as Charlie... 28th February 2011 · 1 min read
