UK Commercial Property Update How much weight should we put on real estate equity price rally? There is not an automatic link between real estate equity prices and price changes in the physical property market. However, while the prospect of a faltering economic recovery this year still... 8th March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response RICS Housing Survey & BRC Retail Sales (Feb.) House prices fell a little further in February and activity levels remained static at depressed levels. Consistent with that, the BRC survey brought further evidence that the squeeze on household... 8th March 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Feb.) The current conditions component of February's Economy Watchers Survey (EWS) was even more upbeat than the improvement signalled by the outlook in the previous month. However, the forward-looking... 8th March 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is China committed to rebalancing? Much of the talk at the National People’s Congress is of the need to boost domestic demand. But with the finance ministry projecting an even smaller budget deficit for 2011 than 2010, the government’s... 7th March 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia HSBC/Markit PMI (Feb.) February’s PMI data show that Saudi Arabia’s non-oil private sector continues growing at a rapid pace. However, production costs are increasing more rapidly than output prices, which suggests that... 7th March 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank of Thailand set to hike again The Bank of Thailand (BoT) announces its policy rate decision on Wednesday and we expect the repo rate to be hiked by 25bp for the third meeting in a row, to 2.5%. The economy is strengthening and... 7th March 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What does $100pb oil mean for the US? The rise in the price of oil to above $100 per barrel (pb) will not send the economy back into a recession or push the Fed much closer to tightening policy. Relative to our existing forecasts, the... 7th March 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly A long week in politics Prime Minister Kan is pushing his budget through parliament but will face a much tougher time passing the financing bills required to fund it. The opposition may only play ball if he tenders his... 7th March 2011 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch What goes up must come down Inflation will climb further in most major economies over the coming months, reflecting both higher energy prices and higher food prices. The peaks should still be lower than those in 2008 as long as... 7th March 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Housing has never been this under-valued The further fall in house prices at the end of last year has made housing look more under-valued relative to income than ever before. (See Chart below.) This appears to be attracting cash buyers and... 7th March 2011 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Uncertainty to keep MPC on hold The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) seems to be getting closer to raising interest rates soon. However, most members still want to wait for a clearer picture regarding the underlying pace of recovery... 7th March 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Assessing the winners and losers from the oil price spike The recent spike in oil prices will impact on different economies within Latin America in different ways. Although it is difficult to say with any great precision, the biggest winner is likely to be... 7th March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Oil price rise comes at a bad time The rise in oil prices has raised fears about the prospects for the economic recovery. Obviously the economy has changed a great deal since the oil price shocks of the 1970s, when sharp oil price... 7th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB raises the stakes This week’s EU summit to discuss the so-called “Grand Bargain” of policy proposals to tackle the euro-zone debt crisis already had a lot riding on it. But last week’s strong indication from the ECB... 7th March 2011 · 1 min read
