Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Jan.) January’s sharp rise in German industrial production adds to evidence that the recovery in the sector and the wider economy still has plenty of momentum and that Germany will remain the euro-zone’s... 9th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will industrial outperformance in Prague last? We are not convinced that rental growth in the Prague industrial market will continue to outperform offices and retail. Indeed, the likelihood of a slowdown in external demand, together with the weak... 9th March 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Inflation pressures are building, but commodity shock temporary The recent pick up of commodity prices, notably food, will probably drive inflation higher than we had previously expected this year. The good news is that the effects of the commodity price shock... 9th March 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update More Bank of Thailand tightening to come The Bank of Thailand (BoT) raised its policy rate by 25bp to 2.5% today, as expected. As with elsewhere across the region, keeping a lid on inflation is the key concern for policymakers. We expect... 9th March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Trade (Jan.) Temporary factors drove at least part of the improvement in the UK’s trade position in January. As with the rest of the economy, reading the underlying trend at the moment is fairly tricky... 9th March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update What do house-builders' results tell us about the housing outlook? Recent encouraging results from two of the major house-builders are unlikely to signal that the housing market has turned a corner, not least because they are backward-looking. And we can find little... 9th March 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Jan.) January's machinery orders data are consistent with only a feeble recovery in investment this year. Admittedly it is early days, but the bulk of the data on capital spending suggest that momentum in... 9th March 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation trouble underlines China’s growth failures Premier Wen Jiabao put price stability at the centre of the government’s concerns in his speech at the weekend. So here is a question for delegates to the National People’s Congress to ponder during... 9th March 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Feb.) Non-food inflation has continued to rise but we remain sanguine about the outlook, not least because much of the latest increase seems to be due to the introduction of new index weights. High oil... 8th March 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Political unrest overshadows strong recovery A strong economic performance in 2010 did not help ease the political pressures on Middle Eastern countries. Perhaps the economic recovery has actually contributed to the feelings of injustice as many... 8th March 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Better days should lie ahead for EM equities The underperformance of emerging market (EM) equities relative to developed market (DM) equities is showing little sign of drawing to a close. But we doubt it will last much longer. Admittedly, EM... 8th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Iceland's troubles are far from over Q4’s renewed contraction in Icelandic GDP is a reminder that the economy will struggle to sustain a decent recovery. While the end of the Icesave saga provides some signs of hope, we doubt it will... 8th March 2011 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed unlikely to follow hawkish ECB's lead Despite signs that other central banks may be preparing to tighten policy, we don't expect to see the Fed following suit, either by calling an early halt to QE2 or raising interest rates later this... 8th March 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam aims for a comprehensive policy shift The decision of Vietnam’s central bank to raise both the refinancing and discount rates to 12% today (from 11% and 7% respectively) was in line with the recent top-level directive to get a grip on... 8th March 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka rates likely to move up later this year The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) kept its policy rates unchanged at today’s meeting, as expected. The economy looks set for another year of above-trend growth, while inflation has already begun to... 8th March 2011 · 1 min read
