US Economics Update Fed likely to complete QE2 as planned Despite the fact that Fed officials now believe the economic recovery is on a "firmer footing" and that surging commodity prices are putting "upward pressure" on headline inflation, it looks like QE2... 15th March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Weak inflation data give boost to Poland's doves Slower-than-expected inflation in Poland last month means that an increase in interest rates at the Monetary Council’s April meeting is not quite the done deal that the markets seem to expect. What’s... 15th March 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Why is the Bahrain crisis so important for the Middle East? The deteriorating political situation in Bahrain may have very serious economic consequences for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Admittedly, the country’s economy is minor and it... 15th March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response FSA Mortgage Lending Statistics (Q4) The latest FSA mortgage lending statistics suggest that credit criteria tightened marginally in the fourth quarter. A lack of lending at higher loan-to-value ratios will continue to drag on activity... 15th March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2011 Preview The Budget on March 23rd will probably include some minor measures to ease concerns over the economy and sky-high oil prices. But the Coalition Government is not likely to signal any significant... 15th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What does the "Euro Pact" mean for Portugal? Contrary to prior expectations, Portugal was not pushed into accepting a bail-out at this weekend’s euro-zone summit. Instead, the “Euro Pact” and Portugal’s announcement of new fiscal measures eased... 15th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW (Mar.) & Euro-zone Employment (Q4) March’s small fall in the headline German ZEW index suggests that investor sentiment might be starting to ease in response to the ECB’s increasingly hawkish stance and global concerns. But this does... 15th March 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update US companies still building up their cash piles The ratio of US non-farm, non-financial companies’ liquid financial assets to their short-term liabilities rose to its highest level in over fifty years in Q4 according to the Federal Reserve’s latest... 14th March 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) Halfway through the Fed's second round of quantitative easing there is still no sign that it is boosting broad money growth. M2 is growing no faster than nominal GDP and our measure of M3, which... 14th March 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How will Japan's disaster affect the rest of the world? The devastation caused by the earthquake and tsunami that struck north-eastern Japan on Friday so far appears to have had remarkably little impact on financial markets in the rest of the world... 14th March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Weight of equity an upside risk to commercial property prices Our central view is that IPD all-property capital values will decline by a modest 2% this year. But with the public sector spending cuts yet to start in earnest, there are plenty of downside risks to... 14th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the "Grand Bargain" prove to be a turning point? Measures announced by European leaders late last Friday to try to resolve the region’s fiscal problems have provided the markets with a boost. But the measures are not as far-reaching as had been... 14th March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What would ECB rate hikes mean for Emerging Europe? The likelihood that the ECB will raise interest rates next month increases the chances that central banks in Emerging Europe will tighten monetary policy too. But even so, we do not expect to see a... 14th March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Is now the time to fix? Assessed over a two year period, Bank Rate would have to rise to at least 2.75% to make it pay to fix at current mortgage interest rates. However, market expectations are for Bank Rate to rise to 2.25... 14th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jan.) January’s euro-zone industrial production data suggest that the sector has made a reasonably solid start to the year. Nonetheless, they add to evidence that the wider economy has grown at a slower... 14th March 2011 · 1 min read
