Latin America Economics Update Nudging up our forecast for Colombian rates We are nudging up our end-year forecast for Colombian interest rates to 4.5% (from 4.0%) in response to the recent spike in global commodity prices. 21st March 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Underlying inflation will remain muted Although the past run-up in agricultural commodity prices will push food prices and headline CPI inflation somewhat higher later this year, we also predict that measures of underlying CPI inflation... 21st March 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly How will the disaster in Japan affect the region? There is no doubt that Japan has suffered a human tragedy, and we extend our deepest sympathies to those affected. The resulting economic impact on the rest of Asia-Pacific will be varied across... 21st March 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Why it's worse than Kobe The Japanese economy as a whole managed to shrug off the impact of the Kobe earthquake in 1995. However, this time it’s different: the recent disaster has had national effects and the blow to... 21st March 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed won't be swayed by higher inflation The statement issued after last week's FOMC meeting made it pretty clear that the Fed wouldn't be rushing to tighten policy in response to the recent surge in commodity prices, at least not while core... 21st March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will the ECB shy away from an April rate hike? Recent events in Japan and the sharp fall in euro-zone equity prices mean that an interest rate hike by the ECB in April is now less certain. For now at least, we continue to think that the Bank will... 21st March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Budget could further ease rate fears The catastrophic events in Japan have contributed to a reassessment of the likely path of UK interest rates that was already underway before the tragedy struck. Nonetheless, a strong signal from the... 21st March 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Is BANXICO preparing to hike interest rates? The minutes from this month’s interest rate setting meeting in Mexico, released earlier today, were unambiguously hawkish. But while the chances of an interest rate rise in the next few months have... 18th March 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Overheating concerns set to decline Evidence is mounting that China’s overheating threat is receding. The People’s Bank will continue to raise reserve requirements, as it did today, to ensure that bank lending remains under control... 18th March 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: growth strong, but increasingly unbalanced Q4 GDP data show that the underlying pace of growth in Chile has started to ease. Nonetheless, it is the unbalanced nature of growth – and principally the strength of domestic demand – that is the big... 18th March 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Feb.) The modest dip in inflation in February was largely due to some strong base year effects, stemming from the spike in prices during last year's winter Olympic Games. We still expect headline CPI... 18th March 2011 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB interest rate hike not around the corner Despite growing domestic price pressures, the Swiss National Bank left its interest rate target at 0.25% at today’s meeting. While the Bank’s tone was a bit more upbeat than expected, the inflation... 17th March 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Longer recession, limited rebound Following last Friday’s earthquake and tsunami we are cutting our Japan GDP growth forecast for CY 2011 from 1.0% to zero. We were already expecting GDP to contract for a second successive quarter in... 17th March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets reassess recovery prospects The recent falls in UK equity prices, interest rate expectations and gilt yields have not simply been a response to the Japanese earthquake. Indeed, all had started to fall prior to the 11th March as... 17th March 2011 · 1 min read
