Canada Economics Weekly Consensus forecast for GDP growth is too high In our opinion, current consensus forecasts that real GDP growth will better 3% annualised over the first half of this year are too optimistic. Admittedly, the monthly GDP data present a fairly solid... 28th March 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly First-quarter growth flagging We had originally expected first-quarter GDP growth to be pretty strong, possibly even as high as 4% at an annualised pace. The more incoming data we see, however, the more we suspect that growth will... 28th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Default worries set to deepen Concerns that one or more peripheral euro-zone economies will default on their debts have intensified over recent weeks. With the Portuguese situation and uncertainties over the permanent crisis... 28th March 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Big downside risks to the Tankan The risks to the markets from the Tankan seem to be skewed in just one direction . If the results o fthe Q1 survey published on Friday are in line or slightly better than consensus, they could be... 28th March 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How much should we worry about global supply chains? Since the earthquake struck on 11 th March, there have been many warnings that massive economic disruption in Japan will be transmitted equally around the world through global supply chains . In our... 25th March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia keeps rates on hold, but policy still tightening Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to keep its key interest rates unchanged suggests that inflation concerns have slipped down the government’s list of priorities over the past few... 25th March 2011 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Activity growth levelling out The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) provides further evidence that economic growth has levelled out over the last quarter. Market worries about overheating and dramatic monetary... 25th March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Institutional investment in property (Q4 10) UK institutional investors made a smaller net purchase of property in Q4 2010 than in Q3, though inflows were still solid by historical standards. With anecdotal evidence suggesting that investors’... 25th March 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Inflation spike has further to run The recent spike in global commodity prices is a much bigger problem for policymakers in Latin America than it is for policymakers in the developed world. This is for two reasons. First, food and... 25th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone retail rental value growth outlook still pretty weak The latest macroeconomic data do little to alter our view that any recovery in euro-zone retail rental values this year will be lacklustre. They also seem consistent with our view that near term... 25th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) The latest euro-zone money and credit data confirm that underlying inflationary pressures remain reasonably subdued. While the ECB appears intent on raising interest rates next month, the money data... 25th March 2011 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Trouble still lies ahead for peripheral euro-zone economies 25th March 2011 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Conditions gradually improving Labour market conditions are still improving and our econometric model, which is based on a range of monthly indicators, points to a 175,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in March. After the rapid... 24th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Ireland’s problems worsen The recent surge in government bond yields, coupled with ongoing concerns about the banking sector and prospects for economic growth, suggest that Ireland may need to gain a bigger bail-out package... 24th March 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Economy fragile even before disaster struck Recent economic data releases have of course been overtaken by the tragedy of the earthquake and tsunami that hit Japan on 11 th March. This edition of our monthly chart book has therefore turned out... 24th March 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update More rate hikes on the way in the Philippines The Philippines’ central bank (BSP) raised its key policy rate by 25bp to 4.25% today, as expected. Rising food and fuel prices suggest that inflation will continue to accelerate in coming months and... 24th March 2011 · 1 min read
