Global Markets Update What will the end of QE2 mean for Treasuries? The completion of Fed purchases of Treasury securities is only likely to result in sustained increases in their yields if it leads to a reassessment of the outlook for short-term interest rates... 29th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Mar.) The latest German CPI inflation numbers are unlikely to provide the ECB with a great deal of comfort. Accordingly, it remains virtually inevitable that the Bank pushes ahead with its April interest... 29th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Capital value growth outlook still weak in Budapest and Bucharest Q4’s rebound in all-property capital values in Budapest and Bucharest is unlikely to mark the start of a rapid recovery. Indeed, weak economic growth prospects argue against a near-term recovery in... 29th March 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peruvian markets fall as election race takes unexpected twist Presidential election races in Peru have a history of being unpredictable. What initially seemed to be a three-way battle to succeed the outgoing Alan Garcia, now appears to be a five-way tussle ahead... 29th March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Feb.) Despite February’s small rise, mortgage approvals for house purchase remain below the level reported in November, before December’s surprise plunge. And looking further back, approvals are just 40% of... 29th March 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment, Retail Sales (Feb.) & Small Business Confidence (Mar.) Today’s retail sales and unemployment data for February were better than expected and small business confidence was high in early March. These figures pre-date the full impact of the earthquake that... 29th March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Nat. Accounts, Bal. of Pay. (Q4) & H'hold borr. (Feb.) Today’s UK data suggested that there is still little evidence of a significant rebalancing in the economy. Indeed, we remain sceptical that the economy is now firmly back on the path to strong health... 29th March 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan's economic reforms push back monetary tightening The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) left its policy rate unchanged at 14.0% over the weekend. The fiscal adjustment programme appears to be back on track and means that there is less urgency for SBP to... 28th March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (Feb.) The small gain in house prices in January is unlikely to signal an end to the weakening trend in house prices. Indeed, if our economic forecasts are correct, the downward pressures on house prices are... 28th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Why are default concerns not hitting the euro? Increased concerns that one or more peripheral euro-zone countries may default on their debts have so far had remarkably little impact on the value of the euro. But there are reasons why the currency... 28th March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish data spat underlines growing concern over twin deficits The recent spat over an apparent ‘black hole’ in the Polish/German trade balance ignores the fact that inconsistencies between bilateral trade balances are fairly common. But the large ‘net errors and... 28th March 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update When will the effects of the earthquake show in the data? This Update provides a calendar to show when the devastation caused by the earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan on 11th March should start to appear in the regular economic data. 28th March 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly India and Indonesia central banks will continue to hike Mostcentral banks across the region will continue tightening policy settings thisyear, although the pace of policy normalisation will vary between countries. Wecompare the policy outlook for the... 28th March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly OBR unwise to bank on strong demand We think that the Chancellor was probably right to stick pretty rigidly in last week’s Budget to his austerity plans. Nonetheless, we have said it before and we will say it again – the Government... 28th March 2011 · 1 min read
