China Economics Update What should we make of today's rate hike? The timing of today’s rate hike was a minor surprise but the bigger picture is that interest rates have played a small part in China’s tightening cycle to date. We think that monetary tightening over... 5th April 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish interest rates close to peaking The accompanying statement to today’s Polish MPC meeting was more hawkish than we had expected but that doesn’t necessarily mean that interest rates have much further to rise. If, as we expect, core... 5th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Poland: which sector offers the best investment opportunities? Recent evidence suggests that European commercial property investors are showing a healthy appetite for the Polish market. We agree that the prospects for returns in Poland are among the best in... 5th April 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update UAE HSBC/Markit PMI (Mar.) March’s PMI data show that despite the political turmoil elsewhere in the region, the UAE’s non-oil private sector’s recovery is gaining momentum. 5th April 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia HSBC/Markit PMI (Mar.) March’s PMI data show that domestic demand is still driving growth in Saudi Arabia’s non-oil private sector; new export orders are growing but at a slower pace than overall new orders. 5th April 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Full year recession in 2011 Signs that the initial blow to economic activity will be even larger than first feared have prompted us to revise our 2011 forecast down further. We now expect Japan’s GDP to fall outright by 1.5%... 5th April 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia's monetary tightening will resume this year The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its cash rate at 4.75% today, as was universally expected. Nonetheless, above-trend GDP growth still looks likely in 2011-12 and will eventually lift price... 5th April 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican manufacturers buoyed by demand from the US The increase in the Mexican IMEF manufacturing index last month suggests that the industrial sector has continued to benefit from stronger demand in the US. But while the Mexican industrial sector... 5th April 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Cautious view on Central London office rents still looks right The tight supply of available space in Central London office markets is likely to boost rental values this year. But there has recently been a pretty steady flow of less encouraging demand data... 5th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Hawkish ECB adding to the periphery's troubles March’s pick-up in euro-zone CPI inflation from 2.4% to 2.6%, combined with signs that pipeline price pressures may be building, has led markets to become increasingly convinced that April’s likely... 5th April 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Mar.) & BCC Survey (Q1) The latest news on the services sector suggested that the underlying recovery in the biggest part of the economy has picked up steam. But we would be surprised if the sharp improvement is sustained... 5th April 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Services PMI (Mar.) The slump in the services PMI in March, following the collapse in the equivalent manufacturing series, all but confirms that Japan's economy contracted for a second successive quarter in the first... 5th April 2011 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Japan's equity market bounces back Japan’s equity market initially fell sharply after the Tohoku earthquake. However, share prices subsequently recovered some lost ground, aided by a weaker yen against the dollar as the G7 undertook... 4th April 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Tankan before and after the earthquake The breakdown of the Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey of business conditions into pre- and post-earthquake responses showed that conditions were already expected to weaken before the disaster and are now... 4th April 2011 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Still not obvious that rate rise is needed There is little to suggest that the Monetary Policy Committee has shifted its position at all since its last meeting. A rate rise therefore does not look very likely. A May hike, coinciding with the... 4th April 2011 · 1 min read
