Bank of Canada Watch Difficult decisions lie ahead for the Bank of Canada It is almost a foregone conclusion that the Bank of Canada will hold its key policy interest rate at 1% next week. More importantly, we think the Bank will refrain from offering material hints of... 7th April 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Still no sign of a ceasefire in Brazil's 'currency war' If recent evidence is anything to go by, Brazil’s latest effort to stem the rise in the real is unlikely to have a lasting impact on the markets. While rising inflation should mean that the... 7th April 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan to "wait and see" There were no major policy initiatives from the Bank of Japan today and we do not anticipate any at the second April meeting either. This might bring the decline in the yen to a temporary halt, but we... 7th April 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Weak economic news could yet stave off a rate hike There had been little to suggest that the Committee had altered its view since the last meeting, so the no-change decision today was of little surprise. However, the next meeting – coinciding with May... 7th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Feb.) February’s German industrial production figures confirm that the economy’s impressive expansion has continued in the early months of 2011 and that Germany remains the euro-zone’s best performing... 7th April 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Still few signs of rebalancing The UK economy is still making little progress on rebalancing away from consumers to other parts of the economy. Until net trade starts to improve, a strong and sustainable recovery seems unlikely. 7th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portugal succumbs. Now what? Now that Portugal has succumbed to the inevitable, the key question is whether the latest euro-zone bail-out finally draws a line under the peripheral economies’ problems or marks the start of a new... 7th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Budget fight: Round 2 The possibility of a Federal government shutdown is back on the front pages, with concern growing that no agreement will be reached before the current continuing spending resolution expires this... 6th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Mar.) Continued low mortgage rates and favourable housing valuations are still failing to stimulate mortgage demand, with mortgage applications for home purchase in March still close to record lows. 6th April 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Feeling the pinch Households are already suffering the biggest squeeze on their incomes in decades. But the worst may be yet to come. 6th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What will higher rates do to the euro-zone? We doubt that the probable ECB interest rate hike on Thursday marks the start of an aggressive policy tightening. But if interest rates were to rise in line with market expectations, their impact... 6th April 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Taking stock of Argentina's inflation problem The IMF is in Buenos Aires this week on its second technical mission to assist the development of a new inflation index. It is difficult to accurately assess the starting point for discussions, but... 6th April 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Industrial Production (Feb.) February’s drop in industrial production is not quite as bad as it first looks. Nonetheless, taken with the drop in March’s CIPS manufacturing survey, it may be that the industrial recovery is past... 6th April 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Halifax House Prices (Mar.) Last month’s marginal increase in house prices is unlikely to set a trend for the rest of this year. With lenders further restricting the availability of credit and the fiscal squeeze intensifying... 6th April 2011 · 1 min read
