UK Housing Market Outlook A longer, slower adjustment seems in store We have not changed our view that the housing market is overvalued. But recent developments in the housing and macroeconomic data point to a slower, more drawnout correction than we were previously... 13th April 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Is West End retail's outperformance set to end? West End retail property remained a star performer in 2010. But relative rents in this prime segment are now at a record high while relative yields are at a record low. Both suggest that Central... 13th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) March's 0.4% m/m increase in US retail sales provides only half the story as the headline numbers are not adjusted for the rise in prices. The key message is that real spending is hardly rising, if at... 13th April 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean rates to continue rising The Central Bank of Chile (CBC) hiked interest rates by 50bps to 4.5% last night. With the near-term outlook for growth still very good and inflation likely to top 5% in Q4, further policy tightening... 13th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Ind Prod. (Feb 11) February’s euro-zone industrial production figures provide tentative signs that the recovery in the sector is starting to lose momentum. 13th April 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Feb./Mar.) The labour market recovery is looking a bit healthier, with the private sector apparently managing to offset job cuts in the public sector. But the continued falls in real pay do not bode well for... 13th April 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Where and why we differ from the pack The attached note highlights the differences between our latest forecasts and those of the IMF, both published yesterday, and the most recent consensus forecasts, taken from the Consensus Economics... 12th April 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update More policy tightening on the way in Sri Lanka The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) left its two key interest rates unchanged today, as was widely anticipated, but tightened policy by increasing its reserve requirement ratio. Unlike other central... 12th April 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What does China's trade rebalancing mean for the world? The recent decline in China’s trade surplus is positive for global growth but it will rapidly reverse if commodity prices fall. Concerns that reduced currency intervention by China will push up... 12th April 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Bulgaria: Disinflationary forces to return to the fore Today’s inflation data from Bulgaria were not as bad as the market had feared. Even so, prices are still rising at their fastest pace for two years and, in the context of the currency board... 12th April 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada in no rush to hike The policy statement from the Bank of Canada this morning signalled that it is still in no rush to raise interest rates. In particular, it offered no hint that a summer rate hike is coming, supporting... 12th April 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update End of QE2 may not be a big deal for emerging markets The conclusion of the Fed’s second round of Treasury purchases is unlikely to be the major turning point for emerging market equities and bonds that many anticipate. Global financial conditions and... 12th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can Spain stay out of the crisis? Worries that the euro-zone debt crisis will enter a more dangerous phase by spreading from the smaller peripheral economies to Spain have recently diminished. But we think that it would be premature... 12th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Feb.) The narrowing in the trade deficit in February is a brief respite before the impact of the more recent surge in oil prices pushes the deficit sharply wider. In any case, it looks like net trade was a... 12th April 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia to resume rate hikes soon Bank Indonesia (BI) left its reference rate at 6.75% today, as was universally expected. Nonetheless, inflation remains uncomfortably high while the economy is set to grow at an above-trend pace in... 12th April 2011 · 1 min read
