Europe Economics Weekly Will the euro ever fall? The further rise in the euro against the US dollar, in the face of speculation that a euro-zone country might default on its debts in the foreseeable future, might seem to indicate that the single... 25th April 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Royal Wedding adds to economic uncertainty At first glance, the marriage of Prince William to Miss Catherine Middleton on Friday 29th April hardly seems to be an important economic issue that merits close examination. Nonetheless, the Royal... 25th April 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: No surprises from the new Governor Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Turkey to keep interest rates on hold at 6.25% but raise bank reserve requirements on short-term lira and FX deposits is a clear signal that there will be no... 21st April 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) The latest retail sales data add to the evidence that real consumption growth slowed to around 2% annualised in the first quarter, less than half the 5% pace seen in the final three months of last... 21st April 2011 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack China’s dollar dilemma unresolved S&P’s decision to put a negative outlook on the US’s AAA credit rating will have been greeted with wry smiles in Beijing. Officials there have long been of the view that US policymakers cannot be... 21st April 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Inflation remains policymakers' key concern Inflation has risen further as food and fuel prices remain high and strong growth has left little spare capacity in many economies across the region. Policy interest rates will move up further, but... 21st April 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Easter muddles the picture Just as the snow-related distortions have faded, Easter timing effects have come along to muddle the picture instead. But as far as we can tell, the underlying trend in consumer spending is flat at... 21st April 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update What does the ratio of house prices to equities tell us? We often encounter the argument that low interest rates have made valuation metrics such as the house price-to-earnings ratio less useful as a guide to the sustainability or otherwise of prevailing... 21st April 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update BCB still in a bind Last night’s decision by the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) to raise interest rates by a smaller-thanexpected 25bps illustrates the bind that policymakers currently find themselves in: how do you tackle... 21st April 2011 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Non-euro-zone markets will outperform in 2011 and 2012 Within non-euro-zone Europe, commercial property markets in Emerging Europe look set to deliver the highest total returns in both the short and the medium term. We expect Russia and Turkey to record... 21st April 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales & Public finances (Mar.) March’s retail sales figures were slightly more upbeat than the other recent news on consumer spending. The public finance figures were a bit better than expected too. But it is hard to be optimistic... 21st April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Apr.) April’s Ifo survey added to the recent tentative evidence that the super-strong German economic recovery is starting to come off the boil a little bit. 21st April 2011 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack How bad was first-quarter GDP growth? The latest consensus forecast still puts first-quarter GDP growth as high as 1.8% annualised, whereas our own calculations suggest it was no higher than 1.0%. (See Chart below.) Furthermore, despite... 20th April 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook The end of QE2 – expect the unexpected As growth slows and inflation subsides, expectations of higher interest rates in the major developed economies should be scaled back significantly. The end of QE2 in the US should neither rattle... 20th April 2011 · 1 min read
