Emerging Europe Economics Update The best of the industrial bounce is now behind us Today’s release of Polish PMI data for April, together with a similar release from the Czech Republic earlier this week, suggests that the industrial rebound in Central Europe remains in pretty good... 4th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Apr.) Despite the latest fall back in mortgage rates, appetite for mortgage borrowing is still stuck in a rut. This supports our view that the cost of borrowing is not the problem. Instead, a number of long... 4th May 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian industry still facing an uphill struggle Brazilian industrial production expanded at its fastest pace in a year in Q1 but the outlook for Q2 and beyond is less promising. The bigger picture remains that Brazilian growth is still being driven... 4th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (Mar.) The small gain in house prices in January is unlikely to signal an end to the weakening trend in house prices. Indeed, if our economic forecasts are correct, the downward pressures on house prices are... 4th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Household Borrowing (Mar.) & CIPS Construction (Apr.) Today’s data suggested that the housing market remains in a fragile state, while the construction sector seems to have started the second quarter on a weak footing. 4th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Property Lending (Q1) & Construction PMI (Apr) Commercial property development activity grew solidly again in April but other data show that credit availability in the sector more generally remains pretty tight. Given this, and our expectation... 4th May 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing PMIs for April show steady growth Purchasing managers’ surveys confirm that global manufacturing growth continued steadily in April, although the pace of growth appears to have slowed slightly in developed countries. They also show... 4th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Apr.) & Mortgage Lending (Mar.) The fact that mortgage lending continues to run at incredibly low levels is weighing on house prices. But while prices appear to be slipping only slowly for now, job losses from the fiscal... 4th May 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia's monetary tightening on course to resume this year The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its cash rate at 4.75% today, as expected. Nonetheless, core inflation rose in Q1 while above-trend GDP growth looks likely over 2011-12. The upshot is that we... 3rd May 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil's experience suggests that Peruvian equities could rally Peruvian markets have been hammered since Ollanta Humala, the left-wing candidate, won the first round of the Presidential election last month. There are several parallels to Brazil’s experience... 3rd May 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Federal election results supportive to economy The Federal election results should be supportive for equity markets, the Canadian dollar and business investment. A pro-business majority Conservative government may also look to forge new bilateral... 3rd May 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response UAE HSBC/Markit PMI (Apr.) April’s PMI data show that the rapid growth in domestic demand has helped the UAE’s non-oil private sector record its best monthly performance since the survey began in August 2009. Nonetheless... 3rd May 2011 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Sluggish recovery eases pressure to hike March’s fall in inflation and a run of weak news on the economic recovery have left an interest rate rise at this month’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting looking relatively unlikely. With inflation... 3rd May 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia HSBC/Markit PMI (Apr.) April’s PMI data show that even though the overall performance of Saudi Arabia’s non-oil private sector remains strong, the pace of growth is slowing down. More worryingly, price pressures are... 3rd May 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: The inflation spike starts here The pick-up in Turkish inflation to 4.3% y/y last month is only the thin end of the wedge and we expect it to rise to over 7% by Q1 2012. Against the backdrop of yet more bad news on the trade deficit... 3rd May 2011 · 1 min read
