Europe Economics Update ECB softens its stance slightly Having kept interest rates unchanged at 1.25% as expected, President Trichet’s comments in the press conference appeared to provide tentative support to the view that the ECB is not about to embark on... 5th May 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Does Emerging Europe need the euro? In contrast to the prevailing consensus, we believe that there is compelling evidence to suggest that the preservation of sovereign currencies – as opposed to euro-adoption – offers the best route to... 5th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Spending to fall both this year and next We continue to expect falling real incomes to prompt consumer spending to drop this year. In fact, with inflation possibly heading to 5% and pay growth showing few signs of following, we recently... 5th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Case for a rate hike weakening Given the dismal state of the recovery, it was hardly a surprise that the Monetary Policy Committee kept interest rates on hold today. Most forecasters have reacted to the recent run of weaker news by... 5th May 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia set for strong growth this year Today’s Q1 GDP data were slightly weaker than the consensus had expected, but underlying growth momentum remains resilient. We still believe that price pressures rather than any concern over growth... 5th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Apr.) The drop in April’s CIPS/Markit report on services echoed the falls already seen in the sister manufacturing and construction surveys and provided further evidence that the economic recovery is... 5th May 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is China exporting inflation? China’s struggle with rising prices is reverberating around the world. Domestic inflation is the highest it has been in nearly three years. Wages are increasing at a double-digit annual pace. No... 5th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Pay settlements provide little cause for concern It is often assumed that the fiscal squeeze is driving the current weakness of consumer spending and that government measures – such as a VAT cut – are all that are needed to get the consumer recovery... 5th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Will London offices outperform the Big Six over 2011-13? Our analysis suggests that total returns in London’s City and West End office markets over 2011-13 will be higher than other major UK cities, i.e. the “Big Six”. Our forecast is that Central London... 5th May 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Canada's 'V' shape housing recovery Housing investment has rebounded close to historical highs, since the sharp declines during the global financial crisis. Unlike in other countries, this 'V' shape recovery was due to a stable banking... 4th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Euro-zone recovery starting to falter Recent falls in euro-zone leading economic indicators suggest that the recovery in the region as a whole may be starting to falter. Admittedly, despite falling for a the third time in four months in... 4th May 2011 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack US Treasuries shrug off revised rating outlook The yield on 10-year US Treasuries declined in April despite concerns about the looming end of QE2 and S&P’s decision to revise its outlook on the longterm credit rating of the US government from... 4th May 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Risks shifting to the downside This week’s sharp falls in commodity prices of all types may have been exaggerated by wild speculation but are mostly consistent with our view of the economic fundamentals. 4th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) Monetary indicators continue to show that broad money growth is exceptionally weak, consistent with inflation eventually falling sharply in the medium term. 4th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will retail continue to be investors' sector of choice in Europe? In Q1 2011, the retail sector accounted for the greatest share of total European commercial property investment market activity. However, this morning’s dreadful retail sales data are consistent with... 4th May 2011 · 1 min read
