Emerging Europe Economics Update Few surprises as industrial output drives Q1 growth The flurry of Q1 GDP data released today suggests that the recovery in Emerging Europe is progressing, although the pace of growth is a touch disappointing given the recent strong expansion in key... 13th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Cracks between euro-zone core and peripheral markets widen Today’s euro-zone GDP data will do nothing to boost investor sentiment towards commercial property in the region’s troubled peripheral economies. Rather it supports forecasts that the gap between... 13th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1) Q1’s 0.8% gain in euro-zone GDP has got the year off to a solid start and we have revised our full-year growth forecast up from 1.0% to 1.5%. But with the divergences in the region still widening... 13th May 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Further tightening to come in Chile & Peru Last night’s decision to raise Chilean interest rates by 50bps to 5% surprised the markets but was in line with our forecast. By contrast, the decision to raise Peruvian interest rates by 25bps was... 13th May 2011 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Fundamentals increasingly negative for industrial commodities 13th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Will the feared, fresh slump in non-prime capital values be avoided? Over the next 12 to 18 months, non-prime capital values in some sectors and regions may well continue to drift lower. But the mismatch between the weight of equity targeting the UK market and the... 12th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Rate expectations continue to fall The continued weak news on the UK’s economic recovery and recent falls in commodity prices have led markets to revise down further their expectations for official interest rates. Overnight index swap... 12th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Apr.) April's retail sales data were something of a double-edged sword. Upward revisions to sales in both February and March mean that annualised GDP growth in the first quarter may be revised up from 1.8%... 12th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Bulk of fiscal squeeze yet to come The recent slowdown in the pace of recovery is probably due in part to the fiscal tightening measures that have already been put in place. But with the bulk of the government spending cuts yet to come... 12th May 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Aluminium prices heading back towards $2,000 The price of aluminium has already fallen by around 7% this month, from the cyclical high of nearly $2,800 to around $2,600 per tonne, as part of the global commodity rout. We expect further... 12th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Arrears and Possessions (Q1) Against a backdrop of subdued wage growth and a weakening labour market, the rise in mortgage possession cases seen in the first quarter of the year is unlikely to be the last. 12th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response CML Buy-To-Let Lending (Q1) The share of buy-to-let in the wider mortgage market continued to rise in the first three months of the year. But that has more to do with the weakness of activity among owner occupiers than... 12th May 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia policy rates to rise soon Today’s decision by Bank Indonesia (BI) to hold its reference rate steady at 6.75% was anticipated given recent downside surprises in headline inflation. However, core inflation continues to climb... 12th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Mar.) March’s euro-zone industrial production figures add to evidence that the recovery in the sector is starting to lose a bit of steam. This supports our view that GDP growth is likely to be pretty... 12th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production (Mar.) March’s industrial production figures poured more cold water on hopes that the sector will be able to keep up its recent support for the overall economic recovery. 12th May 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers' Survey & Bank Lending (Apr.) Respondents to Japan’s Economy Watchers Survey are not as pessimistic about the outlook as they were immediately after the disaster in March, but confidence is still relatively low and there is no... 12th May 2011 · 1 min read
