Europe Economics Focus Greek default - causes and effects The markets are right to think that a likely second bail-out for Greece over the coming months will not preclude some form of debt restructuring or default. But we suspect that they are too sanguine... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Approaching a peak Recent developments have reinforced our view that, although headline inflation will continue to rise in the coming months, it is likely to peak before the end of this year in both advanced and... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Has the manufacturing recovery run out of steam? The industrial recovery appears to have come off the boil. However, although the manufacturing sector now looks unlikely to return to the impressive 5% plus annual growth rates seen towards the end of... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone CPI (Final, Apr.) & Trade (Mar.) April’s sharp rise in core inflation is probably not as worrying as it may seem, but it will do nothing to ease the ECB’s inflation concerns, suggesting that the Bank may raise interest rates again in... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update House price-to-rents ratio - why the different messages? We have been asked why the house price-to-rents ratio compiled using a National Accounts measure of rents indicates that housing is close to fair value, while the Retail Prices Index measure suggests... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Apr.) The index of consumer confidence declined further in April as households’ assessment of conditions over the next six months darkened. April’s fall was even larger than the one seen in March, and... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Strong surface hides widening cracks The solid 0.8% gain in euro-zone GDP in Q1 has left our previous forecast of 1.0% growth in 2011 overall looking too downbeat. We have pushed it up to 1.5%, but an even stronger figure of 2.0% or so... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What's driven the rebound in exports? It's taken over two years, but the US is at last exporting as much as it was before the recession. And the lower dollar may soon give exports an extra lift. Nevertheless, as imports are rising just as... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation to fall further next year than MPC expects On the face of it, last week’s Inflation Report – showing inflation projected to be on target in two years’ time – endorsed market expectations of a modest rise in interest rates over the next couple... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Underlying inflation remains benign Last week's drop back in commodity prices was a stark reminder of why the Bank of Canada has largely ignored what looks increasingly like a temporary commodities-related spike in consumer price... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Recession confirmed? The week ahead will be dominated by the release of Q1 GDP on Thursday, which is almost certain to show the 11th March earthquake tipped the Japanese economy into recession. The low starting point will... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Vietnam needs to remain in tightening mode Policymakers in Vietnam have been busy so far this year tackling the risk of the economy overheating. Nonetheless, policy settings were left too loose for too long and recent data show that broad... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) The pass through of higher commodity prices pushed consumer price inflation up to a two-and-a-half-year high of 3.2% in April, from 2.7%. Nevertheless, with commodity prices now dropping back, the Fed... 13th May 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea's central bank has more work to do The Bank of Korea (BoK) unexpectedly held its policy rate at 3.0% today. Nonetheless, GDP growth has picked up to an above-trend pace, while core inflation looks set to climb further. We still believe... 13th May 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Strong Hong Kong growth stokes property bubble fears Hong Kong is on course for another year of above-trend growth after a strong performance in Q1, but its property bubble is growing. Prices could plausibly halve if buyers started to question how long... 13th May 2011 · 1 min read
