Asia Economics Update Australia still targeting a quick return to budget surplus Despite recent natural disasters, Australia’s government stuck to its aim of moving back into a surplus by 2012-13 in today’s federal budget. The goal is likely to be achieved given the prospect of... 10th May 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Is Peru's boom about to be derailed? Peru’s medium-term growth prospects are amongst the best in the region. But in the near term there is a mounting risk of overheating and tighter fiscal policy is needed to cool demand. In this respect... 10th May 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rising inflation to test BANXICO's nerve The pick-up in Mexican inflation last month was due almost entirely to a rise in food prices. By contrast, core inflation remains more subdued. The lagged effects of higher global commodity prices are... 9th May 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Profits of doom The growth rate of US domestic corporate profits has outstripped the growth rate of the US economy significantly since the end of the Great Recession. However, corporate profits are now coming under... 9th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Outlook for condo prices not as bleak Recent news has highlighted the severity of the renewed downturn in prices of single-family homes. Although condominiums will not escape altogether, over the next year or so condo prices are likely to... 9th May 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Thaw in US-China relations unlikely to last Today’s economic discussions between China and the US are taking place in an atmosphere of unusual warmth. There are two obvious reasons – the fall in China’s trade surplus and the renminbi’s recent... 9th May 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Industrial production growth set to slow further Today’s industrial production data (for Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Romania, Slovakia and Turkey) were weaker than expected, and reflect our concern that the export-led recovery may be starting to... 9th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update German industrial recovery still insufficient to trigger rental growth This morning’s German trade balance data, together with last week’s production data, suggest that Germany’s industrial recovery still has plenty of momentum. Yet, the strong recovery seen so far has... 9th May 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Emerging market inflation close to peaking Inflation will continue to edge higher in most emerging markets over the coming months but should peak by Q4. Indeed, in some countries (notably China) it may already have done so. Accordingly, while... 9th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What next for Greece? European officials have bowed to the inevitable and accepted the need to extend Greece’s bail-out package. But we still think that it is inevitable that Greece will have to restructure its debts at... 9th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Halifax House Prices (Apr.) After stabilising in the past few months, the main house price indices again appear to be on their way back down. Given the weak activity data and the overvaluation in the market, this should come as... 9th May 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Business sector will buffer construction downturn Stronger business investment in non-residential structures should at least partly buffer the negative impact on the construction sector from an expected downturn in homebuilding and the tailing off of... 9th May 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank of Korea set to tighten again We expect Korea’s central bank to raise its base rate by 25bp to 3.25% on Friday. This is also the consensus view. GDP growth was strong at the start of the year while core inflation, which excludes... 9th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Treasury getting perilously close to debt ceiling In all likelihood, the Federal government will hit its debt ceiling at the start of next week, although the Treasury can use a number of accounting tricks to delay the day of reckoning, perhaps until... 9th May 2011 · 1 min read
