Commodities Focus What next for commodity prices? Last week’s rout in commodity prices may have been exaggerated by special factors but the falls were mostly consistent with our view of the economic fundamentals. Rather than being in the early stages... 11th May 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What are the implications of expanding the GCC? The Gulf Cooperation Council’s (GCC) decision to invite Jordan and Morocco to join shows the Council’s determination to ensure the political survival of the two remaining (and friendly) Arab... 11th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Price declines accelerating The latest evidence suggests that prices have started to fall at a faster pace once again. After having dropped by 1.0% m/m in both December and January, prices on the seasonally adjusted FHFA index... 11th May 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Mar.) Following the boost from a rebound in energy output late last year, export growth held up relatively well in Q1, thanks in part to a rebound in the auto sector. March’s trade data suggest the economy... 11th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Mar.) It's taken two-and-a-half years, but US exports finally recovered in March to the levels seen before the recession. However, imports have risen just as fast. As the level of imports is still much... 11th May 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Yen likely to weaken sharply again The renewed appreciation of the yen over the past month has encouraged speculation that the Japanese currency will revisit the post-war record intraday high of 76.25 to the dollar seen on 17th March... 11th May 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Surprise Polish rate hike does not alter the bigger picture The National Bank of Poland’s (NBP) surprise decision to raise interest rates by 25bps to 4.25% today does not change the bigger picture that the pace of tightening currently priced into the forward... 11th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (May) May’s Bank of England Inflation Report left the outlook for interest rates finely balanced. But we remain of the view that the markets are overstating the likely level of rates over the next couple of... 11th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Mar.) The widening in the UK trade deficit in March was all but inevitable after such a sharp narrowing in the previous two months and the big picture is that the trade position is still looking a lot... 11th May 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation high, activity unexpectedly weak Inflation fell last month but it remains at a level that will keep China’s policymakers on edge. There was also further evidence that the economy was weaker at the start of Q2 than previously thought... 11th May 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Treasuries – who will fill the void left by the Fed? The Federal Reserve’s second round of quantitative easing (QE2) ends next month. Last November, the FOMC announced that the Fed would purchase an extra $600bn in US government bonds by th middle of... 10th May 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Apr.) Headline inflation probably fell last month on the back of sharp outright falls in vegetable prices. With economic growth stabilising, policymakers signalling they are willing to tolerate faster... 10th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Housing Market Survey (Apr.) The latest RICS housing market survey provides further evidence, if any were needed, that the house price outlook is weak. Most of the activity indicators deteriorated further in October and surveyors... 10th May 2011 · 1 min read
China Data Response Foreign Trade (Apr.) Weaker-than-expected imports brought China’s trade account back into a large surplus in April. Imports from Japan fell, but most striking was the slide in total commodity purchases. We estimate that... 10th May 2011 · 1 min read
