Europe Economics Weekly Will the Portuguese bail-out work? It is not surprising that the positive market reaction to the initial details of Portugal’s package last week was short-lived. On the face of it, the bail-out may turn out to be more successful than... 9th May 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How useful are the PMI surveys? The attractiveness of the PMI surveys lies in their ability to provide an accurate and timely assessment of business conditions. Shocks to the Japan economy, such as the financial crisis and the... 9th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation Report could reinforce drop in rate expectations This will be the fourth Inflation Report in a row that the MPC will be in the uncomfortable position of revising down its GDP growth forecast for 2011 but revising up its inflation forecast. But of... 9th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) The 244,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in April will come as something of a relief to the financial markets, particularly after the surge in initial jobless claims reported yesterday and the slump... 6th May 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Inflation fears to fade as commodity prices slide This week’s sharp falls in commodity prices of all types may have been exaggerated by wild speculation but are mostly consistent with our view of the economic fundamentals. 6th May 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Apr.) April's job figures provide some comfort that economic growth held up towards the end of the first quarter, following February's decline in monthly GDP. Given the slowdown we expect in the US later... 6th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is the RICS survey too harsh on Czech rental growth prospects? This morning’s RICS global survey painted a fairly positive picture of Emerging European commercial property occupier markets, particularly in Poland, Russia and Turkey. But surveyors seem to be... 6th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Mar.) March’s German industrial production figures add to other signs that the wider economy made a strong start to the year. But there is growing evidence that the industrial recovery may have started to... 6th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Producer Prices (Apr.) April’s producer prices figures showed that cost pressures have continued to build in the manufacturing sector, but more recent developments suggest that these pressures may turn out to be short-lived... 6th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q1) The latest RICS Construction Survey had a distinctly negative tone, with activity in all sub-sectors falling in Q3. Given construction’s key role in the wider recovery to date, the survey thus... 6th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Spanish GDP (Bank of Spain Estimate, Q1) Initial estimates of Spanish GDP growth in Q1 suggest that the economy continued to expand at the start of this year, but only just. There remains a risk of a “double dip”, which could prompt Spain to... 6th May 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Negara Malaysia set to tighten further Today’s 25bp policy rate hike by Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) surprised the consensus, which expected no change, but was in line with our forecast. We expect further tightening to 3.5% by the end of the... 5th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery grinds to a halt The news that GDP rose by only 0.5% in Q1 means that underlying activity has been broadly flat over the past six months. With the full effect of the fiscal tightening yet to be felt, we expect the... 5th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack House prices will be dragged lower by job losses Last month’s housing market news-flow may have been slightly more positive than of late, but it didn’t change the underlying picture of a market that remains severely depressed. And if unemployment... 5th May 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update More rate hikes to come in the Philippines The Philippines’ central bank (BSP) raised its policy rate by 25bp to 4.5% today, as expected. Core inflation has been trending upwards and is likely to continue doing so, while economic growth looks... 5th May 2011 · 1 min read
