Asia Economics Update Reserve Bank of India accelerates rate hikes The Reserve Bank of India surprised the markets with a 50bp hike to the repo rate to 7.25% today, whereas both we and the consensus had expected 25bp. The accompanying annual Monetary Policy Statement... 3rd May 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Reserve Bank of India accelerates rate hikes The Reserve Bank of India surprised the markets with a 50bp hike to the repo rate to 7.25% today, whereas both we and the consensus had expected 25bp. The accompanying annual Monetary Policy Statement... 3rd May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Manufacturing (Apr.) April’s CIPS manufacturing survey provided further evidence to suggest that the best days of the industrial recovery are behind us. 3rd May 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed's survey shows diverging demand for loans The Fed's latest survey of Senior Loan Officers shows a rapidly widening divergence between the strengthening demand for commercial loans and the falling demand for residential mortgages. 2nd May 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Apr.) Today's data releases show that while the manufacturing sector is still leading the recovery, the construction sector remains mired in recession. 2nd May 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing bubble a national problem The latest Teranet National Bank house price report, released last week, provided a timely counterbalance to the growing belief that Canada's housing boom is being driven solely by Chinese purchases... 2nd May 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed still too hopeful on growth Even after the downward revision announced at last week's first ever post-policy meeting press briefing, the Fed's new forecasts for economic growth still look a bit optimistic. In the light of the... 2nd May 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly India to continue policy tightening We expect the Reserve Bank of India to raise the repo rate by another 25bp to 7.0% on Tuesday. Recent data show that inflation has picked up again. Moreover, there are growing signs of demand-pull... 2nd May 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Two positives for Golden Week Much of our recent coverage of the Japanese economy has been distinctly gloomy, summed up in our forecast that GDP will fall outright this year. This view has been supported by the recent activity... 2nd May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Recovery, what recovery? Clearly there is a limit to how much weight anyone, the MPC included, should put on the provisional GDP figures. Nonetheless, it would take a pretty substantial upward revision to leave the recovery... 2nd May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greek default worries deepen Last week was another bad one for Greece. Markets are now increasingly convinced not only that Greece will default, but that it may happen before the European Stabilisation Mechanism comes into... 2nd May 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Feb.) After several months of very strong growth, the 0.2% m/m decline in Canada monthly GDP in February is not a major concern. We had anticipated a drop back and even the consensus forecast was for no... 29th April 2011 · 1 min read
ECB Watch "Strong vigilance" would signal June hike With recent communications from the ECB maintaining a distinctly hawkish tone, President Trichet could use Thursday’s post rate-announcement press conference to signal that the next hike in interest... 28th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Limited progress Our econometric model suggests that jobs growth was a little bit weaker in April, with payrolls increasing by around 175,000, down from the average rise of 200,000 in the previous two months. This may... 28th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q1 1st Estimate) The slowdown in first-quarter GDP growth to 1.8% annualised, from 3.1% in the final quarter of last year, was due principally to the surge in energy prices, adverse weather and a sizeable drop in... 28th April 2011 · 1 min read
