Latin America Economics Update Mexican Q1 GDP disappoints The pick-up in annual GDP growth in Mexico in Q1 masks the fact that in q/q terms the economy slowed fairly sharply. With the current pace of manufacturing growth set to ease later in the year as... 19th May 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What will the end of QE2 mean for commodities? The conclusion of the Fed’s second round of Treasury purchases may remove one reason for commodity prices to rise but it is not necessarily a good reason for them to fall. However, there are many... 19th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Delinquencies (Q1) & Existing Home Sales (Apr.) Despite the modest fall in the share of mortgages in foreclosure in the first quarter, over four million homeowners are still in serious danger of losing their home. Moreover, it is worrying that... 19th May 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand set for a prolonged fiscal tightening Despite 2011 being an election year, New Zealand’s government today announced a budget with few giveaways. The aim to move back into a surplus by 2014-15 will be tough to achieve, especially if... 19th May 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update No quick fix to Hungary's FX debt problem Media reports suggest that the Hungarian government is close to unveiling a draft plan aimed at dealing once and for all with the legacy of the FX-debt boom that brought the country’s banking sector... 19th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Construction Survey (Q1) December’s snow may have distorted the data, but the latest RICS survey nevertheless showed that commercial property, driven by London’s office market, was the only sector to see a rise in... 19th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Temporarily better Consumer spending received a boost in April from the favourable combination of the good weather, the later fall of Easter and the Royal Wedding. However, this support is only temporary and we suspect... 19th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Ireland also need a second bail-out? Ireland appears to be under no imminent pressure to follow Greece and seek a bigger bail-out package. Nonetheless, we still think that it may eventually need to gain additional financial support from... 19th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) April’s official measure of retail sales supported other evidence showing that the high street enjoyed a bit of a bounce last month. However, it looks like this strength primarily reflected the... 19th May 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q1) The further contraction in GDP in Q1 confirms that Japan is now in recession and we expect the decline in Q2 to be even bigger. The economy was weak before the Great East Japan Earthquake struck on 11... 19th May 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia set for above-trend growth Malaysia’s economy grew at a slightly slower pace at the start of the year, which surprised the consensus but was in-line with our view. Strengthening domestic demand should mean that growth picks up... 18th May 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Q1 growth bolstered by spike in commodity prices The spike in commodity prices in Q1 supported strong growth in both Chile and Venezuela. But while Chilean policymakers are well placed to deal with any fall in commodity prices next year, Venezuelan... 18th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain: are cracks starting to show? For now, markets continue to give Spain the benefit of the doubt. But with signs that its modest economic recovery will soon lose momentum and increasing concerns that the regional governments will... 18th May 2011 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Power shortages unlikely to undermine growth Power shortages are adding to investor concerns about the outlook for China’s growth. The main problem is that the government has not allowed regulated electricity prices to increase in line with the... 17th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Weak occupier markets will act as a drag on property returns Our assessment is that average property yields will more or less remain at current levels for the next 12 to 18 months and IPD all-capital values will now avoid the modest falls that we had previously... 17th May 2011 · 1 min read
