Emerging Europe Chart Pack Few surprises in Q1 GDP; growth to slow in second half The raft of Q1 GDP data released earlier this month confirmed that the region’s economies are still expanding, but that the pace of growth remains disappointing, particularly given the depth of the... 26th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview A temporary slowdown Our econometric model, which is based on a wide range of indicators, suggests that payroll employment increased by around 150,000 in May. That would be the smallest increase since January and would be... 26th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Rate worries ease as growth fears build Signs that the UK’s economic recovery has lost steam have taken their toll on UK markets. Interest rate expectations have fallen back sharply, even though CPI inflation looks on track to rise to near... 26th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus How good is the long-run outlook for Turkish property returns? Strong economic growth in Turkey over the next 10 to 15 years should support an above average decline in commercial property yields, as well as reasonably strong rental value growth. Our central view... 26th May 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Domestic demand set to drive growth The growth outlook for Latin America remains good. GDP growth is likely to slow a little over the coming quarters as external demand weakens and commodity prices come off of the boil, but the domestic... 26th May 2011 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Gradual slowdown, not hard landing The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) shows growth continuing steadily to decline, but none of the component indicators give any reason to think that China is facing a hard landing. 26th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Inflation close to peaking The lagged effect of the rapid run-up in commodity prices over the past year will push CPI inflation up from 3.1% in April to close to 4% by the summer. But now that the upward trend in commodity... 25th May 2011 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank of Canada in no hurry to raise rates It is almost a foregone conclusion that the Bank of Canada will hold its key policy interest rate at 1% next week. More importantly, we think the Bank will refrain from offering hints of imminent rate... 25th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response FHFA House Prices (Q1) The housing downturn has gone from bad to worse, with the FHFA index showing that prices in the first quarter fell at a faster rate than at any time since the height of the financial crisis in late... 25th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Apr.) The 3.6% m/m drop back in durable goods orders in April isn't quite as bad as it looks, at least not when we take into account that decline only partially reversed the 4.4% m/m increase in March... 25th May 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What is the impact of a fall in tourism revenues? The fall in tourism revenues in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region will have serious economic implications in the near term. Even if visitor numbers start to increase (as political... 25th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Property market activity and prices remain in a lull All-property rental values remained broadly stable in January, though again this owed much to rises in the City and West End office markets, which offset falls elsewhere. All-property initial yields... 25th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Has the decline in Moscow all-property yields run its course? On a two or three year view, we would not be surprised to see Moscow all-property yields drop by a further 50-100bps. But over the rest of this year, uncertainty over the outcome of next year’s... 25th May 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Inflation to slow in 2012, Turkey the exception The spike in inflation that has dominated the headlines in recent months should be short-lived. In most countries, rising inflation has been driven by higher food and energy inflation, which in turn... 25th May 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Falling exports turn trade balance negative Japan registered her first seasonally-adjusted trade deficit in two years in April. Exports not only failed to increase after the initial disruption caused by the earthquake but also fell further... 25th May 2011 · 1 min read
