Commodities Update Gulf fiscal pressures need not mean higher oil prices Major Gulf oil producers such as Saudi Arabia now need higher prices to balance their government’s books, but these break-even rates are unlikely to act as a significant constraint on how far or... 2nd June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Copenhagen retail market looking increasingly overpriced Q1’s fall in Danish consumer spending suggests that it may take a little longer for retail rental values in Copenhagen to recover than we previously expected. Given their low level, we cannot rule out... 2nd June 2011 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Green light for July hike ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet will use Thursday’s post rate-announcement press conference to signal another rise in interest rates at the following meeting in July. But with growing signs that the... 2nd June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Net trade boost unlikely to last The long-awaited re-balancing of the economy seems to be underway, with net trade making a huge positive contribution to quarterly GDP growth in Q1. However, the 1.3% contraction in domestic demand... 2nd June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (May) In February, the CIPS/Markit construction PMI hit its highest level since last June, driven primarily by a surge in residential construction activity. However, activity in the commercial property... 2nd June 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Emerging Asia PMIs fall but still point to industrial growth Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) released today for India, Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Australia all worsened. However, the declines were generally small. These data suggest that manufacturing... 1st June 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing growth at eight month low The global manufacturing PMI fell sharply in May and is now at its lowest level since September 2010. This confirms that economic growth has slowed since the beginning of the year, and that industrial... 1st June 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Coming back down to earth Most commodity prices tumbled last month as doubts about the strength of global demand and even the Chinese economy grew. We believe these falls were fully justified by fundamentals and expect further... 1st June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) The latest monetary indicators show that broad money growth remains exceptionally weak, suggesting that the recent slowdown in the pace of economic recovery may be more than just a temporary soft... 1st June 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian industry still feeling the strain of a strong real While Brazil’s industrial sector appears to have made a decent contribution to growth in Q1, it seems that it will be a drag in Q2 and perhaps beyond. Manufacturers are being squeezed by the ongoing... 1st June 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing (May) & Construction Spending (Apr.) The sharp decline in the ISM manufacturing index to a 19-month low of 53.5 in May, from 60.4, will only add to fears that the economy has hit another "soft patch". That decline comes on the heels of... 1st June 2011 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Emerging European markets currently leading the way Emerging European property markets are outperforming the rest of non-euro-zone Europe both in terms of rental growth and yield compression. Yet, the pace at which yields are falling is slowing in all... 1st June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek bail-out 2 will merely delay the inevitable A second Greek bail-out package, perhaps involving some form of voluntary debt rescheduling, won’t address Greece’s fundamental problems and won’t prevent a major restructuring in the future. 1st June 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia's economic weakness will not last long Today’s Q1 GDP data show that Australia’s economy contracted in early 2011 at its fastest pace since the 1991 recession. However, the weakness was down to local floods and Cyclone Yasi. Growth will... 1st June 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update PMI data confirm slowing regional growth Today’s PMI data for the Czech Republic, Poland, Russia and Turkey provide further evidence of a slowing recovery in Emerging Europe. Much of the buoyancy of manufacturing output has been driven by... 1st June 2011 · 1 min read
